Modern Athlete Magazine Issue 123, October 2019 | Page 28

SPORT MAN
Says
By
Manfred Seidler
Take 2 on Breaking 2
Later this month, marathon World Record holder Eliud Kipchoge is set for a second attempt to break the two-hour barrier
for the marathon distance. If he does achieve a 1:59, it won’t be a new world record, but do we care? I can tell you that I
don’t!
How much credence you give these predictions is, of
course, debatable. A quick glance at that whole table
and you will see that many of their predictions were off
the mark. That said, these were made in 1989, when
nobody had heard of Usain Bolt or Eliud Kipchoge.
The Legend.. .
Kipchoge. Now that name evokes all sorts of
emotions when you talk to people who love running,
or are involved in running in some way. He is a
phenom – there simply is no other word to describe
him. El Kip, as many call him, was always a really,
really good athlete, but when he switched to the
marathon, he became a living legend.
I
t is no secret I am a bit of an elitist when it comes
to the sport of athletics. I love to watch the front
end of races, commentate on them, and write about
them. Watching athletes challenge barriers has always
been my passion... there is something poetic and
yet intrinsically animalistic about that raw power. To
use a cliché, the ecstasy written all over the faces of
athletes who have just smashed another boundary,
or the agony of having come so close to making
history, that is the drama I live for. Thus watching Eliud
Kipchoge smilingly annihilate all we have thought
possible in the marathon, is sheer drama. And I love it.
He won Olympic silver and bronze in the 5000m in
2008 and 2004 respectively. He also took home 5000m
World Championship gold and silver medals in 2003
and 2007 respectively. Pretty darn good, if you consider
that his world title in 2003 came at the tender age of
18, and amongst the scalps he claimed were Hicham
El Guerrouj and Kenenisa Bekele. In 2004, El Guerrouj
would win the Olympic 1500m/5000m double, and
Bekele still owns the World Record in the 5000m, which
he set in 2004. It was also Bekele who beat Kipchoge in
2008 to the Olympic gold. So this is seriously illustrious
company that Kipchoge was up against!
Pushing the Limits
Over the millennia, mankind has striven, by hook or by
crook, to break barriers, be it a sub-10-second 100m,
the sub-4-minute mile; breaking 30 minutes for 10km,
the first high jump over two metres, or the first pole
vaulter to go beyond six metres. So naturally there
has been much talk and speculation about whether
a man can break two hours for the marathon. It’s an
intriguing prospect.
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ISSUE 124 OCTOBER 2019 / www.modernathlete.co.za
Kipchoge dabbled in road running from as early as
2003, but didn’t take it seriously at first. After all, he had
run 26:49.02 for the 10,000m in 2007, which, believe
it or not, is only good enough for 20th on the world
all-time rankings. But it showed some serious speed, as
did his 12:46.53 PB for 5000m, run in 2004 (sixth-fastest
of all time). So when Kipchoge made a concerted move
to the road, it was always going to be special.
Looking at him now, it is clear that he is the ultimate
road runner. Or rather, the ultimate marathoner. Many
top middle distance track stars have gone from the
track to the road and not been able to make the jump
all the way to the top level in the marathon. Kenenisa
Bekele is a case in point: He holds the world records in
both the 5000m and 10,000m, but has not been able
to move that ability to the road (see Ed’s Note at end.)
Haile Gebresslassie and Paul Tergat, on the other hand,
were able to make the transition, but neither was able to
dominate the marathon as Kipchoge does, even though
they held the world records in both the 10,000m and the
marathon at some stage in their careers.
Imperious Performer
Kipchoge made his marathon debut in 2013, and we
should have expected something dramatic. After all,
in his first attempt at the half marathon distance in
September 2012, he finished third with a 59:25, on
debut! So it was no surprise that when he moved up
to the marathon in April 2013, he won the Hamburg
Marathon in a time of 2:05:30. Five months later,
Kipchoge suffered his only defeat thus far in the
marathon, and it took a world record to beat him as
Wilson Kipsang ran 2:03:23 to win in Berlin. Kipchoge
was second in 2:04:05. Since then, he has lined up in
10 more marathons and has won them all, including
the 2016 Olympic Marathon. In imperious fashion.
That makes it 11 wins in 12 marathons, to date.
Hang on, though, because Kipchoge has, in fact, run
(Arcimboldo/Wikipedia),
The first time I delved into this topic was when I
interviewed Professor Tim Noakes about how fast
man could ultimately go. In his iconic book, The Lore
of Running, he dedicated a chapter to to this topic,
and discussed a 1989 article published in Journal
of Applied Sciences, by Peronnet & Thibault, titled
Mathematical Analysis of World Running Records,
from 100m up to the marathon. This article predicted
that by 2028 the men’s marathon world record would
stand at 1:59:36.08, would be improved to 1:57:18.47
by 2040, and sometime after that the record would
reach its ultimate limit of 1:48.25.25.