Runners who missed one timing mat
Start : There were just six runners that missed the start line timing mat and had no other missed splits . Three ( Start Mat Vic 1 , 2 and 3 ) were wheelchair runners photographed at the start , so they are 100 % legitimate . There is also nothing overly suspicious about the other three runners , so this is a ‘ clean audit .’
Runners who missed two or more timing mats
Missed Two Consecutive Splits : There are 14 people in this category , the majority of whom ( 12 ) missed the 5km and Lynnfield Park splits . For me , they all check out as legitimate finishers , and the pace is consistent with other runners who did not miss the splits . The early splits are the fastest , so the ‘ pink flags ’ in the comparison to overall pace , and pace after the missing split , can largely be ignored .
Although the timing mats did not catch these wheelchair pushers at the start , the cameraman did
Early Splits : Due to the volume of runners that missed the 5km and Lynnfield Park mats , I have filtered the table below only on runners where there might be some suspicion . Lynnfield Vic 59 is almost definitely a cheat , ‘ running ’ at sub-3-minute pace over the missing 25km , but he can only manage an average of 7:53 / km thereafter . Additionally , he would have been running in the top 10 to Cato Ridge , but is mysteriously missing from all television footage . Bearing in mind that this is the fastest double split segment , and most runners go out too fast , I think the probability that any of the “ Slightly Suspicious ” runners cheated is low .
Late Splits : I ’ ve included all 22 runners who missed a mat from Cato Ridge onwards . Cato Bronze 1 is Darius Bezuidenhoudt , who was happy for me to use his 100 % legitimate finisher data as a point of reference for more suspicious times . Winston Vic 3 is a Green Number runner who very narrowly makes the Drummond cut-off and then runs almost 90 seconds a kilometre faster than any of her other splits over the next 25km . Whilst that pace is possible , it is highly improbable , based on her other data and that of the field – there was only one other person that went through Drummond in over six hours and finished . ( Aside : It ’ s incredibly rare for a runner to make a split cutoff by less than 10 minutes and still finish the race . Only nine people managed to legitimately do so at this year ’ s event .)
Further to this , Winston Vic 3 has finish line photos with what appears to be her son . My working assumption is that this runner got into a car after Drummond , waited for her son at the side of the road and then rejoined the race somewhere before Pinetown . In further intrigue , the son also missed the Lynnfield Park mat and managed to pull off his best performing segment over his missing split .
Whilst a missing split pace of 4:50 / km is definitely possible for A seeded runners , Drummond Bill 1 ’ s time is out of sync with the rest of his data , so I flagged him as suspicious . However , a possible explanation could be that this runner held back until Cato Ridge and then decided to see if he could blast through for a silver medal . The good news is that additional validations exonerate this runner , so his missing split time was one of the few legitimate anomalies .
Sherwood Vic 1 is also suspicious because it ’ s so late in the race , and very few runners are able to radically outperform the rest of their race data at this point . I wondered whether this was a runner who had to move it to make the final cut-off , but he was very safely under 12 hours . In his defence , he was able to run earlier splits faster than this pace ( and the pace is potentially within the reach of a D seeded runner ).
Missed Two or More Non-consecutive Splits : I am comfortable with all four runners who missed two non-consecutive splits , as the numbers are all within normal ranges of their other data and comparisons with the rest of the field . The same cannot be said for the only runner to miss three splits . This runner has already been outed on social media for being a “ shapeshifter ” at the Two Oceans and Cape Town Marathons , where someone else ran in his number . His pace over the first two missed mats ( the start line and Lynnfield Park ) are very unlikely , and whilst his Drummond time is within range , my feeling is that he did a little bit of running and lot of driving around the route . I suspect he carefully timed his appearance at the mats where he was recorded to look realistic for a silver . If this is the case , it shows an alarming amount of premeditation . It will be interesting to see what his disciplinary hearing brings up .
Missed Four Consecutive Splits : Two runners are recorded at Cato Ridge ( 30km into the race ) and are not seen again until the finish line . MIA from Drummond 1 runs at an average pace of 8:22 / km to Cato Ridge before running twice as fast ( 4:18 / km ) from there to the finish . A clear cheat or an enthusiastic spectator ? There is no clear finish line photo of him , so he may have bailed , made his way to Moses Mabhida Stadium and then inadvertently had his race number picked up at the finish line as an enthusiastic spectator standing a bit too close to the finish line mats .
The second runner falls into the highly suspicious category as he would have had to run a massive negative split over the last two-thirds of the race to achieve a bronze medal , having run an average pace of 8:07 / km to Cato Ridge . His time could potentially be possible for an A seeded runner who has a really rough start and then comes right in the second half of the race , but since our potential villain ran from H batch , the suspicions are increased .
Missed All Splits : The final investigation is a runner that missed all eight splits before appearing on the finish line . This is actually a sad rather than malicious story . The number belongs to Bloemfontein runner , Moeketsi Selemela , who was murdered in July – his estranged wife is one of three suspects on trial for his murder . Selemela ’ s brother , Thabang , and another Centre City Titanium
Images : Marathonphoto . com and courtesy Stuart Mann , Thabang Selemela
24 ISSUE 155 | www . modernathlete . co . za