Mining Mirror January 2019 | Page 17

Indaba preview Regulatory uncertainty The main factors that keep foreign investors away are political instability and regulatory uncertainty. Ramaphosa’s attempts to grow the economy is laudable, but a fractious ANC and political rivalry are hampering all the good intentions. In the race to win votes, populist rhetoric is now the flavour of the day. The South African political landscape has become a battlefield of ideologies, even within the ruling party. A faction closely linked to former President Jacob Zuma has allegedly been plotting to topple Ramaphosa; something that the country can ill afford. Ramaphosa has been pressurised to push through contentious policy resolutions accepted at the ANC national conference in December 2017, when he was chosen as leader in a neck-to-neck race with Zuma’s preferred candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Policy proposals like expropriation of land without compensation and the nationalisation of the Reserve Bank are radical interventions in a country’s economy that does little to build confidence among foreign investors. Security of tenure is non-negotiable, especially in the mining industry, which is a long-term investment. Mantashe’s appointment was a welcome relief after the disastrous tenure of the previous Minister of Mineral Resources, Mosebenzi Zwane. His approach to amend Zwane’s Mining Charter III prompted applause, which soon faded though, as its implementation date was extended again and again. The Mining Charter has become a thorn in the side for both the mining industry and Mantashe. And still, foreign investors wait, not sure about what Ramaphosa and his government will do next. In the meantime, China, usually not as concerned about policy issues as the rest of the world, heeded Ramaphosa’s call, and has pledged to invest billions to dig the South African economy out of its hole. Ramaphosa, juggling balls and eager to see South Africa regain some respectability, has announced a stimulus package and continues to garner support from the business community. His conundrum, though, is that he has to retain the majority vote for the ANC come 2019, and most of his votes will have to be from people not as business friendly as the president. The unions and leftists played a critical role in his election in December and would expect at least some form of centralised approach to the economic development of South Africa — and a few political appointments as a reward. A challenging mining environment Within this political and socio-economic timebomb, the mining industry in South Africa has been ticking over, trying to cut costs and grappling with its own challenges. Deeper mines; rising input costs; and union, labour, and productivity Expropriation without compensation has caused a stir in South Africa, especially in the agricultural sector being the main target of the intended new policy amendments. www.miningmirror.co.za JANUARY 2019 MINING MIRROR [15]