Mining Mirror January 2018 | Page 3

Comment Southern Africa becomes high-risk territory Get in touch @LeonLouw3 [email protected] P olitics play such a critical role in the mining industry that it has become impossible to ignore the deafening political noise currently overwhelming the southern African region. Political, geographic, social and environmental risks have become crucial factors to consider when geographic diversification becomes part of a mining company’s future strategy. As we enter 2018, investors are becoming more cautious of where they invest their money, and a lot more concerned of how political change will affect their investments. Mining is a long-term commitment, and if there is the slightest hint that owners might lose their property in the future through nationalisation, or by being forced to pay excessive tax, or give away more than half of their companies, they will not invest. As the southern African populace becomes more and more vocal about the poor quality of leadership, and lack of service delivery, their leaders, government representatives and members of the opposition, intensify the populist rhetoric. Unfortunately, the mining industry is always the number one target of their vehemence. Foreign mining companies will stay away from countries where they are threatened, or even where they feel threatened, and where the risks outweigh the possible rewards. And contrary to what some believe, the best mineral endowment in the world is not good enough anymore. The southern Africa region seems to be on the brink of entering its version of the Arab Spring. As risk managers raise the red flags for South Africa, Zimbabwe, the DRC and even Zambia, established companies take flight, and potential investors turn a blind eye. While corrupt southern African leaders, autocrats and dictators continue feeding at the through provided by the tax paying community and at the expense of their citizens, the tax pool shrinks as existing tax payers migrate to greener pastures, and what could have been future tax payers, invest their capital elsewhere. It’s time the leaders in southern Africa, and especially South Africa, realise that money follows stability, predictability and where it is safe; not affinity, geology or guilt. Leon JANUARY 2018 MINING MIRROR [1]