Military Review English Edition March-April 2016 | Page 47
EMERGING COMPLEXITY
Great Complexity Remains
The premise that many enemies—nation-state military
as well as other applicable entities like substate actors, terrorists, or criminals—have relied upon is to create cognitive
and computational dissonance (an inability to comprehend
and effectively apply computational tools resulting from
a complex and often misperceived or mischaracterized
condition). This raises an idea or action seemingly out of
the blue, frequently in an asymmetric and asynchronous
nonlinear way, and sometimes confounds our best analytic
efforts and clouds our perceptions. The propensity of our
enemies to act in the context of surprise is one of our greatest security challenges. Its operational construct is nearly
always found in emergence. We cannot hope to effectively
apply the countering elements of national, state, and local
capability unless we can somehow foresee the true nature of
our opponents and their intentions and actions.
After achieving dynamic contextual understanding
and developing knowledge—both continuous activities—
we can develop a view of the forces of change and their
net effect, and we can perceive their interrelationships
and functional importance. If we can discern intent or
accurately perceive likely courses of action, we may even
be able to avoid the often-mentioned “unanticipated consequences” that have so frequently plagued us in the past.
Working with and taking advantage of this newly developed knowledge and understanding should bring greater
clarity and sharper focus to the imposing issues and
challenges at hand. Our goals should be to reduce or see
through complexity, to achieve synergy of understanding
(the ability to connect and magnify the effects of points of
knowledge and insight), and to develop viable responses
and solutions to complex problems and conditions.
Besides using surprise, our enemies will continue to
engage us using several different forms of conflict (e.g.,
hybrid warfare, unconventional crime, cyberwarfare
and cybercrime, terrorism without traditional form, and
weapons with mass and complex effects). The application
of warfare and other forms of violence or crime (with
national security impact) to achieve change will continue
to occur, despite our best efforts to reduce it or end it.
Options such as diplomacy or collegial international cooperation are worthwhile responses and hold some hope
for the future. However, it is apparent that rogue groups,
individuals, subnational entities, and criminals whose
actions have a significant impact continue to exist, along
with a few nation-states that do not share the same values
MILITARY REVIEW March-April 2016
or participate in the community of nations as positive contributors to stability and peace. There is no magic antidote
for this global infection. We must be prepared to fight
against these enemies with appropriate force.
Any future national security challenges, no matter
what form they may take, are likely to include interwoven
conditions and circumstances, and new organizational
structures that we may not yet fully understand. Modern
communications and data processing, along with the
visionary efforts of our enemies, will enable this.
It seems unlikely that even the best of people—using only their natural cognitive abilities—can achieve
the knowledge base, insight, and understanding needed
to reduce complexity, achieve greater clarity, and
develop viable solutions to today’s complex problems.
We need a set of tools, processes, and procedures, and
the policies and support necessary to achieve solutions.
Without them we will be overwhelmed.
Solutions
Solutions to some problems will be possible—others
are likely to be persistent and insoluble. However, there
are some obvious things we need that are achievable
now with the right focus.
We need better practical understanding of complexity and complex conditions. This can be accomplished by providing education and training for key
personnel that will prepare them for the conditions
extant and those that will develop.
We need tools, processes, and policies that will
assist with handling complex conditions and circumstances. This includes advanced computational applications and artificial intelligence that will assist the
human-in-the-loop.
We need a focused national effort to determine
the right applications for the science and theory of
the body of knowledge about complex systems and
conditions. And, we need facilities and mechanisms to
support this vital work.
We need a future orientation that will provide us
with the right focus to develop foresight to meet the next
challenges. In order to achieve this precursor to success,
we need the best minds and the greatest of human spirits
to develop national and allied capabilities.
As a practical matter, we will also need continuous
persistent global awareness; commensurate information-gathering presence and access, analysis, synthesis,
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