Military Review English Edition March-April 2016 | Page 38

Clouds or Clocks

The Limitations of Intelligence
Preparation of the Battlefield in a
Complex World
Maj. Donald P. Carter, U.S. Army

A

t the heart of the new U.S. Army Operating
Concept: Win in a Complex World 2020-2040
(AOC) is “complexity.” The AOC defines
a complex environment as one “that is not only unknown, but unknowable and constantly changing.”1
Globalization and advances in technology have made
the world more complex and interconnected than
at any other time in history. At the same time, those
factors have facilitated attacks against U.S. national
interests globally on an omnipresent battlefield by
enemies who can use such factors to more effectively
employ irregular capabilities to achieve traditional
military effects. Such attacks are being conducted
36

by state actors like Russia, China, North Korea, and
Iran, as well as by nonstate actors like the Islamic
State and al-Qaida.
Together, globalization and advances in technology
have changed the nature and character of warfare. The
era of clearly defined battle lines and firm coalitions is
over. Therefore, winning in a complex world depends,
more than ever, on popular support and, as the AOC
points out, “more than just firepower.”2
A central component to success in the contemporary operating environment (COE) is developing and
maintaining a high degree of situational awareness.3
This herculean task of finding clarity and generating
March-April 2016  MILITARY REVIEW