Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 208

PART 4 OUTLOOK AND EMERGING ISSUES
TABLE 24
SCENARIOS FOR PRODUCTION, TRADE AND APPARENT CONSUMPTION DEPENDING ON IMPLEMENTATION
OF CHINA’S THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN
1 000 tonnes (live weight equivalent)
No-plan
scenario
2030
% growth, 2016 to 2030
Full-plan
scenario
2030
Category Base year
2016 China       Aquaculture production 49 244 67 206 64 572 61 391 36.5 31.1 24.7
Capture production 17 564 16 224 14 562 12 500 –7.6 –17.1 –28.8
Total fish production 66 808 83 430 79 134 73 891 24.9 18.4 10.6
Exports of food fish 7 652 11 302 9 407 7 370 47.7 22.9 –3.7
Imports of food fish 3 869 3 140 3 804 4 900 –18.8 –1.7 26.7
41.2 50.2 49.2 48.0 22.0 19.6 16.6
Per capita consumption (kg)
World, excluding China

Baseline
2030

No-plan
scenario

Baseline

Full-plan
scenario

Aquaculture production 30 783 43 439 44 819 46 515 41.1 45.6 51.1
Capture production 73 346 76 772 77 003 77 290 4.7 5.0 5.4
104 128 120 210 121 821 123 803 15.4 17.0 18.9
Exports of food fish 31 151 37 103 38 689 40 683 19.1 24.2 30.6
Imports of food fish 35 648 45 265 44 292 43 154 27.0 24.2 21.1
15.5 16.0 15.8 15.7 3.1 2.2 1.2

Total fish production
Per capita consumption (kg)
World

Aquaculture production 80 027 110 646 109 391 107 906 38.3 36.7 34.8
Capture production 90 910 92 996 91 565 89 790 2.3 0.7 –1.2
170 936 203 640 200 955 197 694 19.1 17.6 15.7
Exports/imports of food fish 38 802 48 405 48 096 48 053 24.7 24.0 23.8
Per capita consumption (kg) 20.3 21.8 21.5 21.1 7.3 5.9 4.2
Total fish production
„ „ The new reforms and policies set by China for
its capture fisheries and aquaculture sector are
expected to have a noticeable impact at the
world level, with changes in prices, output and
consumption.
the environment, resources, macroeconomic
conditions, international trade rules and tariffs,
market characteristics and social conduct, which
may affect production and fish markets in the
medium term. Inf luences include climate change,
climate variabilit y and extreme weather events,
environmental degradation and habitat
destruction, overfishing, IUU fishing, poor
governance, diseases and escapes, invasion of
non-native species; issues associated with
Main uncertainties
In addition to the new policies in China, many
factors can affect the projections reported here.
The next decade is likely to see major changes in
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