Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 207

THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2018
» human consumption remaining at 20 percent. The
human consumption (as a result of increased fish
imports and new policies supporting waste
reduction and production of species that meet
market demand) will partly compensate for the
greater reduction in overall production relative to
the no-plan scenario.
bulk of the growth in fish exports is projected to
originate from Asian countries. This region will
account for about 51 percent of the additional
exports by 2030. Asia’s share in total trade of fish
for human consumption will remain at 50 percent
in 2030. Advanced economies are expected to
remain highly dependent on imports to fulfil
their domestic demand. The European Union,
Japan and the United States of America will
account for 43 percent of total imports for food
fish consumption in 2030, a slightly lower share
than in 2016 (44 percent).
The high domestic demand is expected to put
pressure on prices. Overall, per capita food fish
consumption in China will range between 48.0 kg
(full-plan scenario) and 50.2 kg (no-plan
scenario). In the full-plan scenario, the expected
high prices in China and the reduced availabilit y
of fish originating from China in world markets
will increase prices at the world level. This
situation would also stimulate greater production
in other countries, which would partly
counterbalance the reduced production in China,
particularly in aquaculture (Figure 53). World per
capita fish consumption would range from 21.1 kg
in the case of full implementation of the plan to
21.8 kg if the plan is not implemented.
Scenarios: impacts of policy measures in China
on global projections
The above results point to reduced growth of the
sector relative to that projected in previous
editions of The State of World Fisheries and
Aquaculture, in large part because of the potential
effects of China’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for
Fisheries Development and additional structural
reforms (see Box 31, above). Because of China’s
prominence in fisheries and aquaculture, changes
in terms of supply, consumption and pressure on
prices could have major implications at the world
level. However, as the practical implementation
and eventual impacts of the Chinese policies are
still subject to some uncertaint y, their objectives
were only partially factored into the model
assumptions and are consequently not fully
present in the baseline results discussed above.
Therefore, two ad hoc scenarios were developed
to compare the baseline results with the potential
outlook in the absence of the plan and with full
implementation of the plan (Table 24).
Summary of main outcomes from the
projections
The following major trends for the period up to
2030 emerge from the analyses:
„ „ World fish production, consumption and trade
are expected to increase, but with a growth
rate that will slow over time.
„ „ Despite reduced capture fisheries production in
China, world capture fisheries production is
projected to increase slightly through increased
production in other areas if resources are
properly managed.
„ „ Expanding world aquaculture production,
although growing more slowly than in the
past, is anticipated to fill the supply–demand
gap.
„ „ Prices will all increase in nominal terms while
declining in real terms, although remaining
high.
„ „ Food fish supply will increase in all regions,
while per capita fish consumption is expected
to decline in Africa, which raises concerns in
terms of food securit y.
„ „ Trade in fish and fish products is expected to
increase more slowly than in the past decade,
but the share of fish production that is
exported is projected to remain stable.
The difference between no or full implementation
of the plan translates into a difference in China’s
total fish production of about 10 million tonnes
in 2030. In the full-plan scenario, China’s capture
fisheries output would decrease by 29 percent,
with aquaculture playing an increasingly
important role in Chinese supply of fish products.
The countr y’s aquaculture production will
continue to increase in all scenarios (by 2.2, 1.9
and 1.5 percent per year, respectively, for the
no-plan, baseline and full-plan scenarios), albeit
at a lower annual growth rate compared to the 5.3
percent per year of 2003 –2016. In the full-plan
scenario, the higher share of fish destined for
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