Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 204

PART 4 OUTLOOK AND EMERGING ISSUES result of policy measures in China, the slowdown in growth of aquaculture production and cost pressure from some crucial inputs (e.g. feed, energ y and crude oil) on the supply side. In addition, the slowdown in Chinese fisheries and aquaculture production will stimulate higher prices in China, with a domino effect on world prices. The increase in the average price of farmed fish (19 percent over the projection period) will be greater than that of captured fish (excluding fish for non-food use) (17 percent). These higher prices, coupled with high demand for fish for human consumption, will stimulate a 25 percent increase in the average price of internationally traded fish by 2030 relative to 2016. In addition, prices of fishmeal and fish oil are expected to continue trending upwards over the projection period, with growth of 20 percent and 16 percent, respectively, in nominal terms by 2030, as a result of strong global demand. High feed prices could have an impact on the species composition in aquaculture, with a shift towards those species requiring less expensive and/or lower quantities of feed or no feed. projected to be 20 percent (or 30 million tonnes live weight equivalent) higher than in 2016. However, it is predicted that its average annual growth rate will be slower in the projection period (+1.2 percent) than in the period 2003 – 2016 (+3.0 percent), mainly because of reduced production growth, higher fish prices and a deceleration in population expansion. About 71 percent of the fish available for human consumption (184 million tonnes) will be consumed in Asian countries, while the lowest quantities will be consumed in Oceania and Latin America. Total food fish consumption is expected to increase in all regions and subregions by 2030 in comparison with 2016, with major growth projected in Latin America (+33 percent), Africa (+37 percent), Oceania (+28 percent) and Asia (+20 percent). In per capita terms, world fish consumption is projected to reach 21.5 kg in 2030, up from 20.3 kg in 2016. However, the annual growth rate of per capita food fish consumption will decline from 1.7 percent in 2003 –2016 to 0.4 percent in 2017–2030. Per capita fish consumption will increase in all regions except Africa (–2 percent). The highest growth rates are projected for Latin America (+18 percent) and for Asia and Oceania (+8 percent each). Despite these regional trends, the overall tendencies in quantities and variet y of fish consumed will var y among and within countries. Farmed species are expected to contribute to an increasing share of global fish food consumption, reaching about 60 percent of the total in 2030 (Figure 52). In real terms, adjusted for inf lation, it is assumed that all prices will decline slightly over the projection period but will remain high. For individual fisher y commodities, price volatilit y could be more pronounced as a result of supply or demand swings. As aquaculture is expected to represent a higher share of world fish supply, aquaculture could have a stronger impact on price formation in the sector overall (both production and trade). Consumption In Africa, per capita fish consumption is expected to decrease by 0.2 percent per year up to 2030, declining from 9.8 kg in 2016 to 9.6 kg in 2030, as a result of population growth outpacing supply. The decline will more significant in sub-Saharan Africa (from 8.6 to 8.3 kg during the same period). Increasing domestic production (+20 percent over the period 2016 –2030) and higher dependence on fish food imports will not be sufficient to meet the region’s growing demand. The projected decline in per capita fish consumption in Africa raises food securit y concerns because of the region’s high prevalence of undernourishment (FAO et al., 2017) and the importance of fish in total animal protein intake in many African countries (see section on A growing share of fish production is expected to be destined for human consumption (around 90 percent). The driving force behind this increase will be a combination of rising incomes and urbanization, linked with the expansion of fish production and improved distribution channels. World food fish 19 consumption in 2030 is 19  Fish for food or for human consumption indicates fish production excluding non-food uses such as fish destined for reduction into fishmeal and fish oil, minus exports, plus imports, plus/minus stock data. Fish consumption data reported in this section refer to apparent consumption, which refers to the average food available for consumption, which, for a number of reasons (for example, waste at the household level), is not equal to edible food intake/edible food consumption. | 188 |