Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 204
PART 4 OUTLOOK AND EMERGING ISSUES
result of policy measures in China, the slowdown
in growth of aquaculture production and cost
pressure from some crucial inputs (e.g. feed,
energ y and crude oil) on the supply side. In
addition, the slowdown in Chinese fisheries and
aquaculture production will stimulate higher
prices in China, with a domino effect on world
prices. The increase in the average price of
farmed fish (19 percent over the projection
period) will be greater than that of captured fish
(excluding fish for non-food use) (17 percent).
These higher prices, coupled with high demand
for fish for human consumption, will stimulate a
25 percent increase in the average price of
internationally traded fish by 2030 relative to
2016. In addition, prices of fishmeal and fish oil
are expected to continue trending upwards over
the projection period, with growth of 20 percent
and 16 percent, respectively, in nominal terms by
2030, as a result of strong global demand. High
feed prices could have an impact on the species
composition in aquaculture, with a shift towards
those species requiring less expensive and/or
lower quantities of feed or no feed.
projected to be 20 percent (or 30 million tonnes
live weight equivalent) higher than in 2016.
However, it is predicted that its average annual
growth rate will be slower in the projection
period (+1.2 percent) than in the period 2003 –
2016 (+3.0 percent), mainly because of reduced
production growth, higher fish prices and a
deceleration in population expansion. About 71
percent of the fish available for human
consumption (184 million tonnes) will be
consumed in Asian countries, while the lowest
quantities will be consumed in Oceania and Latin
America. Total food fish consumption is expected
to increase in all regions and subregions by 2030
in comparison with 2016, with major growth
projected in Latin America (+33 percent), Africa
(+37 percent), Oceania (+28 percent) and Asia
(+20 percent).
In per capita terms, world fish consumption is
projected to reach 21.5 kg in 2030, up from 20.3
kg in 2016. However, the annual growth rate of
per capita food fish consumption will decline
from 1.7 percent in 2003 –2016 to 0.4 percent in
2017–2030. Per capita fish consumption will
increase in all regions except Africa (–2 percent).
The highest growth rates are projected for Latin
America (+18 percent) and for Asia and Oceania
(+8 percent each). Despite these regional trends,
the overall tendencies in quantities and variet y of
fish consumed will var y among and within
countries. Farmed species are expected to
contribute to an increasing share of global fish
food consumption, reaching about 60 percent of
the total in 2030 (Figure 52).
In real terms, adjusted for inf lation, it is assumed
that all prices will decline slightly over the
projection period but will remain high. For
individual fisher y commodities, price volatilit y
could be more pronounced as a result of supply or
demand swings. As aquaculture is expected to
represent a higher share of world fish supply,
aquaculture could have a stronger impact on price
formation in the sector overall (both production
and trade).
Consumption
In Africa, per capita fish consumption is expected
to decrease by 0.2 percent per year up to 2030,
declining from 9.8 kg in 2016 to 9.6 kg in 2030, as
a result of population growth outpacing supply.
The decline will more significant in sub-Saharan
Africa (from 8.6 to 8.3 kg during the same
period). Increasing domestic production (+20
percent over the period 2016 –2030) and higher
dependence on fish food imports will not be
sufficient to meet the region’s growing demand.
The projected decline in per capita fish
consumption in Africa raises food securit y
concerns because of the region’s high prevalence
of undernourishment (FAO et al., 2017) and the
importance of fish in total animal protein intake
in many African countries (see section on
A growing share of fish production is expected to
be destined for human consumption (around 90
percent). The driving force behind this increase
will be a combination of rising incomes and
urbanization, linked with the expansion of fish
production and improved distribution channels.
World food fish 19 consumption in 2030 is
19 Fish for food or for human consumption indicates fish production
excluding non-food uses such as fish destined for reduction into
fishmeal and fish oil, minus exports, plus imports, plus/minus stock
data. Fish consumption data reported in this section refer to apparent
consumption, which refers to the average food available for
consumption, which, for a number of reasons (for example, waste at the
household level), is not equal to edible food intake/edible food
consumption.
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