Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 203

THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2018 FIGURE 51 WORLD FISHMEAL PRODUCTION, 1996–2030 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1996 1998 2000 From whole fish 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 From fish by-products » Over 87 percent of the increase in aquaculture fishmeal and fish oil production, in product weight, should reach 5.3 million tonnes and 1.0 million tonnes, respectively. In 2030, fishmeal production should be 19 percent higher than in 2016, but about 54 percent of the growth will derive from improved use of fish waste, cuttings and trimmings obtained from fish processing. Fishmeal produced from fish by-products will represent 34 percent of world fishmeal production in 2030, compared to 30 percent in 2016 (Figure 51). The fish model does not take into account the effects of the use of fish by-products on the composition and qualit y of the resulting fishmeal and/or fish oil. Possible effects include lower protein and increased ash (minerals) and small amino acids (e.g. glycine, proline, hydrox y proline) in comparison with products obtained from whole fish. This difference in composition may hinder increased use of fishmeal and/or fish oil in feeds used in aquaculture and livestock farming. production in 2030 will originate from Asian countries. Asia will continue to dominate world aquaculture production, with a share of 89 percent in 2030. China will remain the world’s leading producer, but its share in total production will decrease from 62 percent in 2016 to 59 percent in 2030. Aquaculture production is projected to continue to expand on all continents, with variations in the range of species and products across countries and regions. Major increases are expected in particular in Latin America (+49 percent) and in Africa (+61 percent). In Africa, the expansion is projected partly on the basis of the additional culturing capacit y put in place in recent years, but also because of rising local demand from higher economic growth and local policies promoting aquaculture. Freshwater species, such as carp, catfish (including Pangasius spp.) and tilapia, are expected to represent about 62 percent of total world aquaculture production in 2030, as compared with 58 percent in 2016. Production of higher-value species, such as shrimps, salmon and trout, is also projected to continue to grow. Prices The sector is expected to enter a decade of higher prices in nominal terms. Factors driving this tendency include income, population growth and meat prices on the demand side; and the potential slight decline in capture fisheries production as a About 16 percent of capture fisheries yield will be used to produce fishmeal in 2030. The estimated | 187 |