Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 200

PART 4 OUTLOOK AND EMERGING ISSUES
FIGURE 48
WORLD CAPTURE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION, 1990–2030
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
1994
Capture production
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
Aquaculture production
over the course of the projection period to reach
201 million tonnes in 2030 (Figure 48). This
represents a growth of 18 percent over 2016, or 30
million tonnes (Table 22), at a lower annual growth
rate (1.0 percent) than obser ved in the period
2003 –2016 (2.3 percent). as one of the assumptions), the El Niño
phenomenon is expected to reduce catches in
South America, especially for anchoveta,
resulting in an overall decrease of world capture
fisheries production of about 2 percent in those
years.
In 2030 capture fisheries production is expected
to reach about 91 million tonnes, slightly higher
(by 1 percent) than in 2016. Factors inf luencing
this limited growth include a 17 percent decrease
of capture fisheries in China due to the
implementation of new policies, compensated by
increased catches in some fishing areas where
stocks of certain species are recovering due to
improved management; some increase in catches
in waters of the few countries where there are
underfished resources, where new fishing
opportunities exist or where fisheries
management measures are less restrictive; and
enhanced use of fisher y production, including
reduced onboard discards, waste and losses as
driven by legislation or higher market fish prices
(for both food and non-food products). However,
in some years (set in the model as 2021 and 2026 The major growth in production is expected to
originate from aquaculture, which is projected
to reach 109 million tonnes in 2030, with growth
of 37 percent over 2016. However, it is estimated
that the annual growth rate of aquaculture will
slow down from 5.7 percent in 2003 –2016 to 2.1
percent in 2017–2030 (Figure 49), mainly because
of reduced growth of Chinese aquaculture
production, partially compensated by an
increase in production in other countries.
Despite the lower growth rate, aquaculture will
still continue to be one of the fastest growing
animal-food sectors. The share of farmed
species in global fisher y production (for food
and non-food uses), 47 percent in 2016, is
projected to exceed that of wild species for the
first time in 2020 and to grow to 54 percent in
2030 (Figure 50). »
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