Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 199

THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2018
ten-year-horizon agricultural projections
elaborated jointly by the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) and FAO each year and published in the
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook (OECD, 2018).
The fish model uses the same macroeconomic
assumptions and selected prices employed or
generated to produce the agricultural projections.
The fish projections presented here have been
expanded to 2030.
macroeconomic environment; international trade
rules and tariffs; the frequency and effects of El
Niño phenomena; the absence of other severe
climate effects and abnormal fish-related disease
outbreaks; fisheries management measures,
including catch limitations; longer-term
productivit y trends; and the absence of market
shocks. The model also takes partial account of
China’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (Box 31), which
is expected to substantially reduce Chinese
capture fisheries and the growth rate of
aquaculture production in the countr y.
The fisher y and aquaculture projections depict an
outlook for the sector in terms of potential
production, use (human consumption, fishmeal
and fish oil), prices and key issues that might
inf luence future supply and demand. The model
results are not forecasts, but rather plausible
scenarios that provide insight into how the sector
may develop in light of a set of specific
assumptions regarding: the future
Baseline projections
Production
Based on the assumption of higher demand and
technological improvements, total world fish
production (capture plus aquaculture, excluding
aquatic plants) is expected to continue to expand
BOX 31
CHINA’S THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN: POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE
innovations to facilitate the sustainable intensification
of production; a shift from extensive to intensive
aquaculture; and more energy-efficient production. For
capture fisheries, the policy aims to constrain capacity
and landings through licensing, output controls and
reduction in the number of fishers and fishing vessels.
Other objectives include the modernization of gear,
vessels and infrastructure; regular reduction of the
diesel fuel subsidy (e.g. a 40 percent reduction
between 2014 and 2019); elimination of IUU fishing;
the development of the distant-water fleet; and the
restoration of domestic fish stocks through the use of
restocking, artificial reefs and seasonal closures.
These measures should be followed by additional
structural reforms and policies for the fisheries and
aquaculture sector in the following years. If the plan and
additional reforms are fully implemented and the goals
are achieved, it is expected that the growth rate of
China’s aquaculture production will slow and its capture
fisheries production will be substantially reduced.
The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social
Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–
2020) sets forth the country’s strategic intentions and
defines the major objectives, tasks and measures for its
economic and social development. The plan includes
goals and policies for transforming and upgrading the
fisheries and aquaculture sector. It addresses current
challenges such as scarcity of farming space,
parcelling of aquaculture production among small-
scale producers, a degraded resource base and
excess capacity in the capture fisheries sector. The
plan shifts away from the past emphasis on increasing
production; it aims towards making the sector more
sustainable and market oriented, with emphasis on
improving the quality of the products and optimizing
the industry structure, including the processing sector.
For aquaculture, the government policy aims to
achieve sustainable, healthier production better
integrated with the environment. Key elements include
the adoption of ecologically sound technological
SOURCE: OECD, 2017
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