Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 198

PART 4 OUTLOOK AND EMERGING ISSUES PROJECTIONS OF FISHERIES, AQUACULTURE AND MARKETS short-term fish demand and supply projections (Box 30) and medium-term projections obtained using the FAO fish model (see FAO, 2012d, pp. 186 –193), a dynamic policy-specific partial equilibrium model developed in 2010 to gain insight on the potential path of development of the fisheries and aquaculture sector. The fish model has links to, but is not integrated into, the Aglink-Cosimo model used to generate the The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture has presented the results of specific fish projections in ever y edition since 2014. This section presents BOX 30 SHORT-TERM FISH DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS FOR EVALUATING THE GROWTH POTENTIAL OF AQUACULTURE FAO has developed a short-term projection model to assess and monitor potential fish demand and supply gaps over a five-year horizon, with the aim of facilitating evidence-based decision-making at the national, regional and global levels (Cai and Leung, 2017). The model includes: „ „ a demand-side component, which estimates the growth in fish demand; „ „ a supply-side component, which estimates the trend in aquaculture growth; „ „ a set of indicators that measure gaps between demand and supply. Unlike the sophisticated models used to predict likely scenarios of fish production, trade, consumption and prices in the medium or long term, as reported in the main text of this section and included in publications such as Fish to 2030 (World Bank, 2013) and the annual OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook (OECD, 2018), the FAO short-term projection model estimates the potential change of a country’s fish demand as driven by its expected income and population growth, with the assumption of no changes in fish prices in the country. The benchmark fish supply is projected over the same five-year horizon by assuming that the country’s aquaculture production will follow the recent five-year trend while its capture fisheries production remains stable. Then the potential fish demand is compared to the benchmark fish supply, and the resulting fish demand–supply gap can be measured by the shortage or surplus of the potential demand compared to the potential supply; the share of the potential demand increase that can be covered by the | 182 | potential supply increase; or the growth rate of aquaculture production needed to close the demand– supply gap. The results indicate, for example, that for the five- year horizon between the mid-2010s and the early 2020s, aquaculture growth following the recent trend would be able to cover only 40 percent of the global hike in fish demand driven by income and population growth, leaving a fish demand–supply gap of 28 million tonnes in the early 2020s. According to this projection, global aquaculture would need to grow 9.9 percent per year in order to fill the world fish demand–supply gap. In contrast with most projections on fish demand and supply, which focus mainly on regional and global results, the short-term FAO projection model estimates the potential demand–supply gaps for nearly 200 countries or territories, about 40 regions or country groups and the entire world. The results are presented in a disaggregated form for five basic species groups (marine fish, freshwater and diadromous fish, crustaceans, cephalopods and other molluscs) and for four more aggregated groups (molluscs [cephalopods + other molluscs], shellfish [crustaceans + molluscs], finfish [freshwater and diadromous + marine fish] and fish [finfish + shellfish]). The detailed results (presented in the Annex of Cai and Leung, 2017) can be used to inform policy-making or business management at the national or industry level. For example, the results have been used to prepare a policy brief on aquaculture growth potential in Nigeria (see Allen, Rachmi and Cai, 2017) and to facilitate a review of the marine finfish industry in the Mediterranean (Represas and Moretti, 2017).