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Let’s talk about what this rule means and how it can help you uncover your
creative talent.
The Equal Odds Rule
In 1977, a Harvard-trained psychologist named Keith Simonton, developed a
theory that he called the Equal Odds Rule.
“The Equal Odds Rule says that the average publication of any particular
scientist does not have any statistically different chance of having more of an
impact than any other scientist’s average publication.” [4] In other words, any
given scientist is equally likely to create a game-changing piece of work as they
are to create something average that is quickly forgotten.
Translated to the world at-large: You can’t predict your own success. Scientists,
artists, inventors, writers, entrepreneurs, and workers of all types are equally
likely to produce a useless project as they are to produce an important one.
If you believe the Equal Odds Rule, then the natural conclusion is that you’re
playing a numbers game. Because you can’t predict your success, the best
strategy is to produce as much work as possible, which will provide more
opportunities to hit the bullseye and create something meaningful. [5]
I’ve seen the Equal Odds Rule at play in my own work each month. I write new
articles every Monday and Thursday. I know that if I write a new article every
Monday and Thursday, then that will be about 8 or 9 articles per month on
average. And if I write 8 or 9 articles per month, then 2 or 3 of them will be
decent.