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Pre-theatrical VoD: Take Two
Recent chatter around
VoD windowing changes
brought back some
distant memories for
Larry Gerbrandt.
T
here are days when I feel more like a
media and entertainment historian
than an analyst. I got my first media
digital download
on the same date
but the concept has
been avoided by the
major studios. Even
Amazon Studios,
which has become
a mini-major player
in Hollywood
financing and
releasing 15
job (as a magazine editor) in 1974 and movies last year
spent 20 of the intervening 43 years poring (including Oscar
over financial reports and counting cable winner Manchester
subscribers (among other data points) at By The Sea), told
what is now SNL Kagan. recent CinemaCon
So, when I saw the recent reports that attendees that they
several of the major studios are actively were committed to
negotiating with US movie theatre chains releasing its movies
to do a pre-theatrical VoD premiere of in real movie
major Hollywood releases with ticket prices theatres before
reportedly ranging from $30 to $50, I felt a premiering them on
strong sense of déjà vu. its Amazon Prime
As far back as 1992, cable pioneer John
Malone was actively pursuing the pre-
service.
The biggest
theatrical PPV event concept, with price difference this
ranges, after adjusting for inflation, in time around is that
basically the same range. He almost pulled the studios are
it off, with Liberty Media investing in reportedly offering
Carolco (producer of Terminator 2, Basic the theatres a cut
Instinct and other blockbusters of the era) in of pre-theatrical
exchange for the pre-theatrical rights. revenues. Yet to be
The window would have debuted with the
worked out is how long the pre-theatrical
release of Cutthroat Island. The concept window will be (John Malone floated the
died when theatre chains threatened idea of turning a movie’s premiere into an
MGM—with which Carolco had signed a event, with red carpet coverage, behind
crucial distribution deal—that they would the scenes interviews and even a T-shirt or
boycott all MGM releases if they allowed the
pre-theatrical window to emerge. A further
other movie souvenir) and how long studios
would have before releasing movies in the
ironic twist is that Cutthroat Island digital download market (possibly
(directed by Renny Harlin and as short as 30-45 days after
starring his then-wife
Geena Davis) turned
out to be Carolco’s
last movie release and
is considered one of
the biggest box office
failures in history.
Since then there
have been a variety
of attempts to change
the theatrical window
(traditionally at
least four months
but recently as little
as two months until
home video, including
simultaneously
releasing movies in
theatres, DVD and
24 EUROMEDIA
theatrical release).
Larry
Gerbrandt
has been
a media
analyst
and
research executive for more
than 30 years with companies
such as Kagan, Primedia
and Nielsen. Since 2007 he
has been principal at Media
Valuation Partners and
currently sits on the board
of INSP, a basic network with
more than 80m subscribers.
He can be contacted at
larry@mediavaluation.com.
One of the reasons the
studios are now considering a
pre-theatrical window is that
US movie admissions have
been essentially stagnant for
two decades: according to
The Numbers (a web site that
tracks movie data) total US
admissions in 2016 were 1.334
billion; in 1996 they were 1.31
transportation and for an important segment
of the potential movie-going population in
the 25-39 age demographic, often the cost of
a baby sitter, making a night at the movies a
$75-$100 extravagance. The thinking is that
for less than half of that, these young adults
would just as soon stay home and watch an
early premiere.
There is a bigger issue hanging over
Hollywood than just trying to increase its
stagnant theatrical take. The same companies
that are re-writing the rules of how content
is consumed are now increasingly able
to dictate terms to the major studios…or
eventually even marginalise them as content
sources. How large Jeff Bezos’s movie mogul
ambitions go are still unknown and the price
of competing in the tent-pole blockbuster
segment is staggeringly high and failure-
prone, but this is an entrepreneur who has
billion. The only growth from also poured billions into the Blue Origin
the movie window has come reusable rocket start-up, a challenge both
from ticket price inflation: from Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos (legendary
$4.42 per admission in 1996 entrepreneurs in their own right) have found
to $8.43 in 2016 according to be both staggeringly expensive and failure
to The Numbers. Of course, prone. As the saying in rocketry goes: “Space
that does not include the price is hard”. So is the business of making hit
of popcorn and soft drinks, movie on a consistent basis.