Supply Chain
MARKETING AFRICA
Supply Chain
Michael Nzule
The Waves Of Supply Chain Disruptions
Which wave of disruption in your supply chain are you riding on? Rarely will this be a one wave event. It is possible that disruption waves occur simultaneously or longitudinal to each other. Effective supply chain management is now defined with disruption as a sure constant. Agility, resilience, and sustainable operations define success for competitive supply chains and operations management.
Globally, recent supply disruptions have continued to evolve from the pandemic shocks of Covid-19 to geopolitics( Middle East Crisis, Russia-Ukraine Crisis, The Strait of Hormuz) as well as climate-driven logistical disruptions and structural alignments. The disruptions result in huge freight costs due to re-routing of traffic( e. g. at Red Sea). Unpredictable global tariff wars led by the US to China have hugely impacted pricing decision and led to international trading bloc realignment. The intensity of the disruptions keeps on growing and becoming complex.
According to the UN Trade and Development( UNCTAD), in April 2026, the Strait of Hormuz experienced a critical and near-total standstill in traffic. This severe bottleneck disrupted nearly 30 % of global seaborne oil trade and 20 % of global liquefied natural gas( LNG). This disruption continues to fuel sharp increases in energy prices, triggering fuel rationing, and forcing massive costly re-routings for logistics. This has severely impacted global supply chains and manufacturing inputs.
Between 2020-2025, the world experienced the pandemic shock wave. Covid-19 led to lock downs, labour shortages and unprecedent port bottlenecks that created massive shortages of consumer goods, automobiles and semiconductors. Ship scheduling and availability of containers compounded the shocks. This challenged the thinking and rationale behind production philosophies like Just-In-Time. Emergency supply chain logistics management methods became elevated as uncertainty became the new
90 MAL72 / 26 ISSUE normal. From this wave of disruption, considerations for redundancies in production capacity and flexibility are being fully engrained in supply chains, to deliver resilience.
The period from 2022-2024 was characterised by geopolitical and structural crisis wave. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted grain and energy markets, while Middle East instability caused the Red Sea crisis, forcing ships to bypass the Suez Canal for the longer and expensive Cape of Good Hope route.
As from 2025, chronic climate disruptions characterised another wave of disruption. The world continues to face a new era of persistent disruptions driven by climate change. The recent drought reduced water volumes in the Panama Canal. This led to decline in transits traffic by approximately 30 %, raising concerns over the influence of climate change on water levels and canal operations.
The world continues to face risks of intensified cyberattacks and rising trade tariffs. This wave is characterized by " hidden " risks as firms try to diversify away from over-reliance on single, concentrated manufacturing hubs.
The key observed drivers of continued volatility through these waves of disruptions are geopolitical instabilities, logistical bottlenecks, environmental and climate risks. Continued trade disputes, such as tariffs hikes on goods, coupled with regional conflicts, are driving up costs and forcing reconfiguration of trade routes. Major maritime trade lanes are experiencing high volatility, with vessel demand growing three times faster than cargo volumes in the period 2024-2025 due to rerouting. Natural disasters( floods, hurricanes, wildfires) are increasingly damaging critical infrastructure, affecting manufacturing, and halting transportation.
The immediate impacts of the global supply chain disruptions include energy supply shocks, high shipping and delay costs, manufacturing material shortages and high-risk insurance. Regions relying on Gulf refineries, such as Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, are bearing the brunt of the transport fuel shortages and rising prices. The disruption led to shortage of fertilizers during critical planting seasons. This is expected to trigger significant food security crisis, especially for the world ' s poorest countries.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, the damage to global supply chains and the necessary re-calibration of trade routes means that supply chain disruption and high costs will continue throughout 2026 and beyond. Macroeconomic consequences of supply chain instability include negative impact of inflation, production capacity, labour market pressures, international trade and deteriorating firm-level competitiveness.
Having looked at the ongoing waves of supply chain disruptions, firms still must execute strategies to fortress resilience. This will enable them to remain relevant to the core objective of their very existence. Survival is not just the bare minimum, but they must do so profitably and in a sustainable manner.
Supply chain resilience strategies include diversification of sourcing and manufacturing sites. One of these strategies is the China Plus One strategy, where companies diversify their supply chains by establishing manufacturing or sourcing operations in another country, while retaining their core production in China. It aims to reduce reliance on a single, high-risk location and mitigate disruptions from geopolitics, trade wars, or industrial shutdowns. This is not a complete exit strategy but a risk mitigation strategy. This retains the competitive advantages of China of unmatched efficiency and infrastructure, but with the flexibility of a secondary manufacturing site.
Rising labour costs, geopolitical tensions between the US and post Covid-19 realign