organizations are for shocks that do not come from the market but from government decisions.
Many boards still do not take time to model these kinds of scenarios. Geopolitical changes such as elections, regional conflicts, or shifting donor priorities are often treated as background issues rather than as real risks. Yet in practice, they can disrupt operations and undo years of growth in a very short time.
What I emphasize to boards is simple: in emerging markets, policy is not background noise. It is a direct driver of risk that deserves close and constant attention. Boards that fail to keep an eye on the political horizon are, in effect, navigating without radar. And when that happens, the cost of being caught unprepared can be very high.
Culture as the First Line of Defense
I often tell boards that culture is either the strongest risk control an organization can have or its weakest link. During my banking career, I worked with a credit team that, on the surface, seemed flawless. Their files were always immaculate, the documentation was precise, and the unit appeared to be a model of best practice. But when I looked closer, I discovered something worrying. Staff were under quiet but constant pressure not to raise negative information for fear of delaying approvals or appearing obstructive.
That culture eventually led to a costly default. The problem was not that the risk was invisible. It was that people felt it was unspeakable. That lesson stayed with me throughout my career.
I see the same pattern in my consulting work today. In one engagement with a board and senior management team, I asked about how their staff raised near-misses and whether mistakes were discussed openly. At first, the board members confidently pointed to their policies and reporting channels. But as we dug deeper in the discussion, it became clear that staff did not always feel safe speaking up. Managers often preferred to“ solve” issues quietly rather than escalate them. For the board, it was a moment of realization that the silence in their organization might be a greater risk than any technical gap.
That is why, when I speak to boards about culture, I do not begin with manuals or registers. I ask simple questions instead: Do staff feel safe reporting near-misses? Does management reward bad news that is caught early, or punish it? Are whistleblowing channels genuine and trusted, or are they symbolic and ignored?
The answers to these questions reveal more about resilience than any policy document ever can. Culture determines whether people speak up or stay silent, and that difference often decides whether risks are managed early or allowed to grow into crises.
Leadership and the Psychology of Risk
When I work with senior executives, I remind them that risk management is not only about systems and frameworks. It is also about psychology. Leaders are human, and with that humanity comes blind spots, biases, and egos that shape how decisions are made.
I remember a leadership workshop where I spoke about what I call the“ optimism trap.” Many executives, driven by growth targets and pressure to deliver results, tend to downplay risks and overestimate their ability to handle shocks. To bring this to life, I asked the group a simple question:“ If you had six months’ warning before Covid-19, what would you have done differently?”
The answers flowed easily. Some said they would have diversified their supply chains. Others said they would have strengthened staff wellness programs or invested earlier in digital channels. After they had finished, I pointed out something uncomfortable. The warnings were there. Pandemics had been flagged repeatedly by the World Health Organization for years. But like most of us, leaders assumed,“ It won’ t happen here.” That is optimism bias at work.
The lesson for boards is clear. Optimism is valuable for inspiring teams and driving growth, but unchecked optimism can expose organizations to unnecessary risks. That is why boards must deliberately create space for dissenting voices, encourage independent challenge, and use scenario thinking to test their assumptions. It is not about being negative. It is about making sure decisions are anchored in reality rather than in hope alone.
Practical Takeaways for Today’ s Leaders
In all my work, whether in banking halls, consulting boardrooms, or through the Hope Arthritis Foundation, I have come to rely on a few reflections that I often share with senior leaders.
The first is that scenario testing is no longer optional. If leadership teams have never rehearsed what to do in the face of a cyberattack, a sudden climate shock, or an unexpected policy change, then they are not ready. It is better to be uncomfortable in a rehearsal than paralyzed in a real crisis.
The second is the need to integrate risk with performance. Too often risk is treated as a separate exercise, something that runs parallel to strategy. In my experience, risk needs to be built directly into key performance indicators, incentives, and business plans. Otherwise, it is sidelined in day-to-day decisionmaking.
Another point that I emphasize is the importance of humanizing every risk. Behind every loan default, fraud incident, or system outage, there is always a person affected. It might be a customer, an employee, or an entire community. Boards must not lose sight of that reality because it changes how decisions are made and keeps empathy alive in governance.
I also stress the importance of investing in board capacity. Risk management cannot be outsourced entirely to management. Directors themselves need to be curious, informed, and proactive about the risks their organizations face. A board that is passive on risk leaves the institution exposed.
Finally, I remind leaders that the goal is not perfection but resilience. Risks will always exist. What matters is how well an organization can respond, recover, and adapt. Those that build resilience into their culture and processes are the ones that thrive even when the unexpected happens.
Final Word
After three decades in the field, my conviction is simple: risk is leadership in action. It is not a department, not a report, not a burden. It is the practice of foresight, courage, and accountability. Boards and executives who embrace this truth will not only survive disruption; they will lead through it. Because in the end, risk is not about what might go wrong. It is about protecting what must go right.
Reuben Kisigwa is a strategic consultant and a certified competencybased curriculum developer. You can engage him vide mail at: RKisigwa @ gmail. com.