financial crisis as the Dow Jones Index hit a five year low in November Match . com noted a strong spike pattern in traffic , the same pattern had been noted during September 11 attacks . Similarly , during current crisis I have heard the term ‘ Corona Babes ’ being used to describe some of the results of emergency dating in order to have emotional support during the crisis .
The divorce rate index works the same way with lower rates indicating bad economic times . During such times married couples realize that two are better than one . Instead of going separate ways they choose to face whatever marital problems they may be having head-on the point being that it is actually cheaper than paying divorce lawyers . As lawyers tell us , everything is negotiable . Patterns from Nairobi court records show that this index mirrors economic trends , divorce is also rare among poor households .
Sky Scraper Boom Index
I remember reading somewhere that if you trade in the stock market and a company in which you are a shareholder wins an architectural award it ’ s time to sell that stock . Apparently it is a sign of focus on glamour over substance and the company may be losing focus on the fundamentals .
The Sky Scraper Index tells us that building booms precedes recessions ; this is evidenced by the highly predictive Barclays Sky Scraper Index . During the Great Depression , The Chrysler , Empire and 40 Wall Street , three of the world ’ s tallest buildings at the time were under construction . I had an argument with my Rwandese colleague who was impressed by some new tall buildings in Upper Hill Nairobi ; I was pessimistic about their occupancy rate , today most of the buildings are struggling with lots of unoccupied commercial space . Pinnacle Towers currently under construction in Nairobi is destined not only to be the tallest building in Kenya but in Africa standing at 659 feet and hosting a 255 room Upper Hilton Hotel . While it will most likely be a sight to behold its economic indications are in the wrong direction .
Loyalty Points Redemption Index
I think this one is a no brainer , those who use Safaricom mobile phone services you know too well that you think about redeeming Bonga Points when the cents are low . Now that they have enabled their customers to make purchases in supermarkets and pay utility bills using the Bonga points during these bad times the redemption rate has been very high . The same applies to frequent flying miles and other redemption of loyalty points where increased redemption in the society indicate a weak economic environment .
Salesman Closing Time Index
While average sales closing time applies to high ticket items such as cars , I have noticed the same for gadgets like mobile phones where during bad times sales men are quicker to close a sale or offer discounts than in good times . The current crisis in 2020 have resulted to a drop in sale of commercial vehicles like buses , vans , pickups and lorries with some recording lower sales by more than 50 % compared to 2019 this increases aggression of the salesmen eager to make a sale . For the mobile phone shops in Nairobi the salespeople at phone shops are very quick to offer alternative cheaper models and handsome discounts .
The same may not apply to sales people of high-end brands like iPhone , BMW and Mercedes Benz most of which have registered increased sales in 2020 compared to 2019 in Kenya . The salesmen of such products with what economist call a Kinky demand curve that doesn ’ t obey the laws of demand and supply may spend more time with customers as the brand fans choose between irrelevant queues such as colours and extra accessories .
Hot Waitresses and Waiter Index
Catherine Hakim , the author of the book , Honey Money , tells of how women and men can increase their chances of success at work and in life by boosting their attractiveness what she calls erotic capital . As a Fellow of the London School of Economics she understands the economics of attractiveness .
Hot waitresses and waiter index is based on the understanding that attractive people should find better jobs during good economic times than serving in bars and restaurants . Therefore the more hot they look the worse the economy is performing . During good times the gig economy normally boom and attractive people would normally be in high demand in commercial gigs , hosting corporate events , being cabin crews in airlines , shooting advertisements or being socialites . When you enjoy that exemplary service from that hotie in your local bar or restaurant , it is time to tighten your belt the economy is not as hot .
Red Ties , Male Underwear and Skirt Length Indices
The rise sales of red ties indicate that people are putting their best foot forward in the employers market . It reflects a scarcity state in employment which calls for people to dress sharply in competition for the few opportunities in the market . The higher the sale of red ties the worse the economy is performing . When leaders in a company or a Nation consistently wear red ties take it as a red flag for a bumpy economy ahead . Male underwear sales increasing means the economy is getting out of the wood because research shows that this is one item that is chopped off the shopping list when the economy gets tough .
The average length of skirts on the streets sends an economic message . The more ladies are wearing skirts or hemlines that are above the knees the better economy and vice versa . Same applies to the amount of skin they expose with more exposure signifying boom times . During bad times ladies want to stick to more material due to scarcity mentality , long dresses such as what was referred to as Kenya uniform were in fashion during downturns while miniskirts were during boom times .
There are so many other indicators of changing consumer behavior shifts that we can observe and understand what they are not telling us . This is also an interesting way to contact free research that is useful in these intriguing times .
Boniface Ngahu is a seasoned marketing research expert and runs the Talking Point column in Marketing Africa magazine . He is the Marketing Director of SBO Research . You can commune with him on this or related matters via email at : BNgahu @ sboresearch . co . ke , or follow him on Twitter @ bngahu .