MAL 29:19 MAL 29/19 | Page 64

are people who require prime properties in Kenya. The country has also been witnessing a lot of diaspora inflows. According to CBK, Kenya received Kshs. 274 billion in 2018 and it is being projected that the country will receive more. If you look at countries like Nigeria, they received USD 25 billion in 2018 (according to a recent report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC), and Kenya is close on the heels. 60% of the remittances in Kenya goes to property with the other percentage going to support families and these are the people who are making the real estate prospects to continue looking up, way into the future. Exponential infrastructural Growth supported by a study titled ‘The home ownership survey’ that was conducted by the Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy, and that was carried 4 years ago which found out that mortgage, as a home financing alternative was taken up by only 6% of respondents, compared to a whopping 54% of Kenyans who preferred personal savings that are not attached to any loans as their mode of home financing. Indeed, Kenya is in ‘kindergarten’ in terms of the property market, an economy that is too young to experience what happens in Europe. These are matured economies; these are economies where credit is available at the lifting of a phone. You call and you get money into the account, you don’t need to go and negotiate for the credit, you can apply online. Things are different in Kenya, because getting significant credit here is not easy. So, there are two key indicators of a property bubble: Number one, people are unable to service their mortgages. Once they are stuck here, banks come in calling, to repossess the property. T hey will go out there and try to resell this property but it will not be taken up, because everybody is under economic pressure. So they end up selling these properties at a throw away price. Number two; property prices drastically drop because there is oversupply and less demand. A bubble is characterized by poor property uptake or as low as 0% to 10%. And Kenya is way off this line; there is more demand and under-supply. There The fundamental pillars that hold the real estate growth in Kenya are so well cemented and continue to be galvanized by a positive growth that is so palpable. Bottom line, the possibility of whether there is a potential property bubble burst in Kenya is just but a far-fetched theory. 62 MAL29/19 ISSUE is a shortage of 250, 000 houses annually! Kenya’s Growing Population The demand for real estate is increasing and it is first being fueled by our growing population. With its current 51 million people; this East African nation currently ranks number 27 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population in the world. 27.1% of this population currently lives in the urban areas (14,149,974 people in 2019). All these people, obviously, require habitats. And we are growing so fast that every 20 seconds, one birth is registered, according to the CIA World Factbook. There has been exponential middle class growth in this country. These are the people who are easily able to construct their own homes. This middle class is fueling a lot of growth in the real estate. We have a huge number of expatriates. These are people who are working for international organizations like the United Nations, the IMF, and the World Bank and for big multinationals that have established their regional hubs in Kenya like Google Kenya, Foton East Africa, Visa Inc, Volvo, amongst others. These There is huge amounts of infrastructural developments, which translate to further augmentation of real estate in the country. The Government of Kenya (and partners) has been rolling out huge projects that range from LAPSSET Corridor Program, the Standard Gauge Railway, major by- passes around its capital city, the Turkana Wind project, amongst others. Many more projects aimed at making Kenya’s infrastructure much smoother and more interconnected are coming up at a higher rate than has been seen in post independent Kenya. Take for example; the Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) recently launched beaconing of a mega 8-lane expressway that will connect Mai Mahiu-Suswa to Chumvi, Mombasa Road, near Machakos Junction. This road corridor will greatly boost many real estate projects that are already sprouting along its way. Funded by the US Government, the expressway will ease traffic along Mombasa Road and make movement of persons and goods much easier. In the recent past, property appreciation has been experienced in Kenya, for instance during the expansion of the Eastern and Northern Bypasses as well as Thika Super Highway. Construction work for this expressway is projected to start early 2020. Another development, which also has a direct positive bearing on real estate growth in Kenya, in the next couple of Kenya is in ‘kindergarten’ in terms of the property market, an economy that is too young to experience what happens in Eu- rope. These are matured economies; these are economies where credit is available at the lifting of a phone. You call and you get money into the account, you don’t need to go and negotiate for the credit, you can ap- ply online. Things are different in Kenya, because getting significant credit here is not easy. years is the construction of the Western Bypass which has just commenced and is expected to take 39 months. This will be a four lane expressway of 16.5KM and service roads of 17.4KM, six interchanges and overpasses at Gitaru, Wangige, Kihara, Ndenderu and Ruaka, each with a configuration of traffic lanes and 11 traffic bridges and underpasses; Separate foot paths, cycle tracks and street lighting. With regards to its funding, the project is financed by Government of Kenya and the China Exim Bank at a cost of KES. 17 billion. Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta is expected to launch the project officially soon. Indeed, the fundamental pillars that hold the real estate growth in Kenya are so well cemented and continue to be galvanized by a positive growth that is so palpable. Bottom line, the possibility of whether there is a potential property bubble burst in Kenya is just but a far-fetched theory. George Wachiuri is the Chief Executive Officer, Optiven Group. You can commune with him on this or related matters via email at: [email protected].