LUSD Facilities Master Plan | Page 64

Section Five D e m o g r a p h i c s Livingston Union School District | Facilities Master Plan & C a p a c i t y Demographic Study October 2016 Introduction and Report Structure The purpose of this Demographic Study is to analyze the changes in enrollment and related trends of the Livingston Union School District and provide student enrollment projections for planning purposes. Factors that affect student enrollment such as births, migration, residential development rates and enrollment growth change as economic and other conditions change in the District. As a result, the enrollment projections identified in this Study are subject to adjustment, and should be reexamined and modified when appropriate. CONTENT/ORGANIZ ATION The Study is organized in the following structure: Step One: Enrollment History and Student Progression Step Two: Birth Rates and Migration Factors Step Three: Housing Development Step One identifies the District’s historical enrollment trends and includes a student progression enrollment projection which advances current students through the grades with no adjustment factors. Step Two identifies some of the various factors that impact student movement through the grades including an analysis of birth rates and general migration trends exclusive of anticipated new housing development. Finally, Step Three layers in the final factor of new residential housing development planned within the District with applied Student Generation Rate (SGR). ASSUMPTIONS The Demographic Study contemplates a range of projection scenarios. For each of the scenarios a birth capture rate using 3 years of historical data was utilized. Migration rates utilizing 3 years of historical data were used. Additionally, a housing unit scenario was contemplated. 62