tion or vaccination is not established . For now , we can only hope it is long lasting . Regardless , achieving the lowest herd immunity threshold estimate of approximately 60 % for SARS-CoV-2 in the US without vaccination would require 198 million infections that could lead to up to 1 million deaths at a 0.5 % fatality rate . 1 In addition , there is little precedent for achieving herd immunity without vaccination . Even assuming all who have already been infected in the US have immunity , over 50 % of the population will have to be vaccinated to hope to achieve herd immunity .
It is unlikely that federal and state governments will be willing or able to mandate vaccination . There is precedent for employers and schools to mandate other vaccinations but not without controversy , and that could prevent them from doing so for COVID-19 vaccination . Thus , the question remains how many people in the US will voluntarily agree to COVID-19 vaccination ? If a Pew research survey 2 conducted in September indicating only 21 % of over 10,000 respondents were definitely planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19 holds true , the answer is not nearly enough .
This Pew Research survey result is not entirely surprising based on historic estimated US adult vaccination rates shown in the graphic below .
EMERGING TRENDS IN INFECTIOUS DISEASE NATIONAL HEALTH INSTITUTE SURVEY
Estimated proportion of adults ≥19 years who received selected vaccines *
* Influenza vaccination , > 19 years — range : 37.2 – 44.8
Pneumococcal vaccination , 19-64 years increased risk — range : 18.5 – 24.0 %
Pneumococcal vaccination , > 65 years — range : 59.7 – 66.9 % Tdap vaccination , 19-64 years — range : 8.2 – 28.0 % Tdap vaccination , > 65 years ( 2012-2016 )— range : 8.0 – 20.4 % Hepatitis A vaccination , > 19 years — range : 8.1 – 9.5 % Hepatitis B vaccination , > 19 years — range : 24.5 – 27.1 % Herpes zoster vaccination , > 60 years — range : 14.4 – 33.4 % HPV vaccination , females 19-26 years — range : 20.7 – 48.5 %
HPV vaccination , males 19-26 years ( 2011-2016 )— range : 2.1 – 13.5 %
The National Foundation of Infectious Diseases Survey of consumers and providers was performed in 2010 in an effort to study and improve US adult vaccination rates . It was summarized in their
( continued on page 14 )
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