for 37 % of exports in the period . Continued outages amongst key LNG producers mean that the US is likely to retain its market share in Europe in the short-term . This will be driven by sufficiently high TTF spot prices in the period to give US exporters an acceptable margin .
The medium and long-term picture for US exports into Europe is less clear . A key challenge for US LNG exporters in the coming years will be the increased supply from Qatar to Europe following its FID on the North Field Expansion project . The USD 28 billion project will increase Qatar Petroleum ’ s ( QP ) production capacity from 77MTPA to 110MTPA , with an increase to its LNG exporting capacity of approximately 43 %. The project poses a particular threat to US exporters who export spot cargoes to Europe and Asia due to the level of uncontracted volumes from the project ( as well as the potential to drive down prices generally due to increased supply ). QP is currently running a tender process for IOCs to take equity in the project , with its eventual partners lifting some “ equity volumes ”, and is running a similar process with key Asian buyers to secure long-term off-takers . However , on completion of the project QP is expected to have approximately 70 % of its capacity uncontracted . Whilst many of the cargoes will be sold into the Asian spot market , a large number will be sold into Europe , posing a challenge to US exporters .
US LNG exporters , however , remain bullish on the prospects of US LNG imports globally and in Europe . The coronavirus pandemic caused the developers of the second wave of US LNG projects to put FIDs on hold . Most have now set a revised target date in either 2021 or 2022 to take an FID on their projects and a number have signed long-term LNG SPAs with a variety of counterparties . Interestingly , some of these contracts are for a ten year term , shorter than the term of the project financing that will be used to develop these projects and exposing the lenders to market risk . Developers will need to contribute additional equity to address this . It remains to be seen how many US LNG export developers will take a positive FID and whether the projects will be of the same scale as initially envisaged , with Tellurian and Next Decade both reducing the capacity of their projects , but we expect a number of positive FIDs in the coming years . There will continue to be demand for LNG in Europe and elsewhere . US exporters clearly intend to supply it .
CURRENT EUROPEAN LNG LANDSCAPE
Europe ’ s Existing Regasification Capacity
The vast majority of Europe ’ s LNG terminals are import facilities , with the only exceptions being in ( non-EU ) Norway and Russia which export LNG . There are currently 29 large-scale LNG import terminals in Europe . Of these , 21 are in EU countries ( and therefore subject to EU regulation ), three are in the UK ( which left the EU on 31 January 2020 ), four are in ( non-EU ) Turkey and one is in Russia , 23 are land-based import terminals , five are FSRUs , and the one import facility in Malta comprises a floating storage unit ( FSU ) and onshore regasification facilities . Six of Europe ’ s LNG terminals – South Hook , Dragon , Isle of Grain ( all in the United Kingdom ), Gate ( in the Netherlands ), Rovigo ( in Italy ) and Dunkerque ( in France ) – have been granted exemptions from EU rules on regulated third party access . All terminals in the EU must publish the terms of access to the terminal ( including tariffs ), with the exception of these six “ exempt terminals ”.
The current large-scale LNG receiving countries in Europe are Belgium ( one terminal ), France ( four terminals ), Greece ( one terminal ), Italy ( three terminals ), Lithuania ( one terminal ), Malta ( one terminal ), the Netherlands ( one terminal ), Poland ( one terminal ), Portugal ( one terminal ), Spain ( seven terminals – six operational ), Turkey ( four terminals ) and the UK ( three terminals ). Collectively , their overall LNG capacity is 237 billion cubic metres ( of gas ) ( bcm ), which is sufficient to cover approximately 40 % of Europe ’ s gas demand . Russia also has an LNG regasification terminal which is supplied entirely by Russian gas .
In addition to these large-scale LNG terminals , there are small LNG regasification facilities in Finland , Gibraltar , Norway , and Sweden .
Planned LNG Terminals in Europe
There are currently in the region of 20 large-scale LNG import terminals being considered or planned in Europe , all of which would be located within the EU , except the planned terminals in Ukraine ( Odessa FSRU LNG ), Albania ( Eagle LNG ) and Turkey ( FSRU Iskenderun and FSRU Gulf of Saros ). Small-scale LNG import projects are also being considered across the continent , including in Latvia . About half of these terminals would be “ first of kind ” in the importing country . By the same measure about half of the planned terminals are FSRUs . bracewell . com