levels , according to Elliott Dennis , livestock economist at the University of Nebraska .
“ With higher anticipated fed cattle slaughter in 2020 , feedlot marketings will increase ; a faster pace of marketings will likely improve feedlot demand for feeder cattle ,” explained ERS , in the July LDPO .
ERS increased its forecast feeder steer price for the third quarter to $ 133 / cwt . ( basis Oklahoma City ), given stronger prices at the end of the second quarter and beginning of the third quarter . Forecast price for the fourth quarter is $ 131 .
Plus , get through August and net feedlot returns grow significantly more positive , according to the most recent Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns ( HPK ) from Kansas State University .
Keeping in mind these projections are cash-to-cash and include no price risk management , the HPK projected average net returns for steers at - $ 214.57 / head in June to - $ 135.31 in August . From there , projected returns through March range from - $ 20.87 ( Jan .) to +$ 39.52 ( Mar .), with four of the seven months in positive territory .
Projected feedlot cost of gain ( FCOG ) for steers ranges from $ 79.42 / cwt . to $ 82.07 , for September through March .
Calf Prices Could Beat Last Year Calf prices were on the rise through the end of July , contra-seasonally , as they sought levels more in line with market fundamentals .
Although the fall run of calves coming to town will likely pressure prices , depending on your tea leaves and abacus , the case can be made for prices this year being higher than last year — not run-away higher , though .
Toward the middle of July , the Livestock Marketing Information Center ( LMIC ) projected calf prices ( Southern Plains 500-600 lbs . at $ 153- $ 156 for the third quarter and at $ 158- $ 162 for the fourth quarter . Feeder steer prices ( Southern Plains 700-800 lbs .) were projected at $ 123- $ 126 for the third quarter and $ 132- $ 137 in the fourth quarter .
This year ’ s corn crop appears to be supportive , with crop progress and condition well ahead of last year and the fiveyear average through the end of July . In that month ’ s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates , ERS pegged corn production this year at 15.0 billion bu . and the season-average corn price at $ 3.35 / bu .
“ Big crops usually get bigger and yields will be no exception . This makes it hard to convince anyone , especially farmer-feeders , that we will have any corn production problems ,” said analysts with USDA ’ s Agricultural Marketing Service , in late July . “ Thoughts that the size of the corn crop will overshadow demand has many producers willing to walk a lot of corn to town .”
Wild Cards Aplenty
There ’ s plenty of uncertainty , of course , mostly tied to consumer beef demand and how the pandemic and the global economic recession it created unfold from here .
Foundation Fullblood FEMALES
Its brood matrons like these that have laid the foundation for our herd . These females represent the kind we have in production and what we have for sale at the farm . They have the extra mass and muscle we have been concentrating on since our beginning in 1995 .
This outcross fullblood bull shows the caliber of sires we are using on our impressive cow herd . He has some of the highest growth rate figures in the breed and his progeny are outstanding .
Check out our revised and detailed website www . GOSSLIMOUSIN . com
To Find Pictures and Details of Cattle For Sale at the Ranch .
POUNDS PAY & MUSCLE STILL MATTERS ! CALL TODAY !
VIDOR , TEXAS 77662 WWW . GOSSLIMOUSIN . COM ANTHONY GOSS 281-794-1339 DAVID GOSS 832-260-5885 continued on page 42
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