continued from page 39
The average annual price next year was forecast to be $ 153 , lifted by tighter supplies .
ERS increased expected beef production slightly for this year , compared to the previous month , to 27.84 billion lbs . That would be 106 million lbs . less than last year ( -0.4 %).
“ Beef production is raised , with more cattle placed in feedlots sooner than normally expected due to drought conditions , supporting higher annual fed cattle slaughter ,” say ERS analysts . “ Additionally , cow slaughter is forecast higher .”
Beef production next year is forecast at 25.95 billion lbs ., which would be 1.89 billion lbs . less ( -6.8 %) compared to this year and the least since 2016 .
Total red meat and poultry production this year is projected to be 106.38 billion lbs ., slightly more than the previous month ’ s estimate . The total would be 431 million lbs . less than last year ( -0.4 %). Total red meat and poultry production next year is forecast to be 105.34 billion lbs ., which would be 1.04 billion lbs . less than this year ( -0.97 %) less than this year .
Herd Contraction Continues
Cow slaughter through the first 20 weeks of this year was 6 % more than last year , according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center ( LMIC ), in the late-May Livestock Monitor .
“ The U . S . has processed about 150,000 head more than the same time in 2021 ,” say LMIC analysts . “ Beef cow slaughter has been
the primary driver , averaging over 75,000 head a week this year compared to last year ’ s 65,000 head . Drought is listed as one of the key reasons …”
LMIC analysts note the current pace of beef cow slaughter implies an annual reduction in the national beef cow herd of more than 2 %.
By any measure , Derrell Peel , Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says national pasture and hay conditions got off to their worst start in 35 years as drought continued to grip various parts of the country .
“ The latest Drought Monitor has a Drought Severity and Coverage Index ( DSCI ) of 183 ( out of 500 possible ) for the nation , the highest DSCI in mid-May for any year of the data back to 2000 ,” Peel explained in late-May market comments . “ This includes over 63 % of the country abnormally dry or worse , with 21.6 % percent of the country in extreme ( D3 ) to exceptional drought ( D4 ). USDA reported pasture and range conditions starting in May have the highest percentage of poor to very poor conditions this year in data back to 1995 .”
At the same time , Peel noted national hay stocks May 1 were 15.1 % less than the average for 2012-2021 ; hay stocks in the 17 western states were 21.7 % less .
“ High fertilizer and fuel prices are adding to the extraordinary cattle industry challenges in 2022 . High input costs are causing some producers that are not facing drought conditions to reduce or skip fertilization of pastures and hay fields . This will result in
continued on page 42
With our first ever online sale behind us , we want to express how appreciative we are of everyone who showed interest , bid and bought from the sale . Our customers inspire us to strive to increase the quality of the livestock we produce . We are thankful for each and every one of you .
lot 9 SSTO 1801J sold to Jamie Watts of Fairfield , NE . lot 2
TF Jackrabbit 115J sold to Michael Fastnacht of Wessington Springs , SD . lot 6 TF Jade 122J sold to Linhart Limousin of Leon , IA .
We have an outstanding set of calves on the ground by CELL Guard House 9300G and TMCK Fleetwood 577F . We welcome your interest in our program .
PJ , Meghan , Harper , Henley & Hunter Torgerson - 41146 221st St . - Artesian , SD 57314 - ( 605 ) 350-7488 - pjtfarms @ gmail . com Kaylee White , Woonsocket , SD
40 • JULY 2022