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have been recovered , many uncertainties lie ahead for the industry ,” says David Portalatin , NPD food industry advisor . “ The continuing pandemic , governmental restrictions , and relief funding are just a few of the uncertainties .
Likewise , international demand for U . S . beef , while stabilizing , continued to be hamstrung by both economic and logistic challenges fostered by the pandemic .
For January through September , U . S . beef exports were 8 % less in volume year over year at 911,936 metric tons and 9 % less in value at $ 5.55 billion , according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U . S . Meat Export Federation ( USMEF ).
“ Although restaurant traffic and foodservice activity are not back to normal in most Asian markets , USMEF is very encouraged by the recovery in Asia and this was especially evident in the strong August and September exports of U . S . beef to Korea , Taiwan and China ,” according to Dan Halstrom , USMEF president and CEO . “ As we close out the year , U . S . beef has a great opportunity to capture greater market share in Asia due to tightening supplies from Australia . While it will require more time , we also expect U . S . beef to regain momentum in regions where beef demand depends more heavily on travel and tourism , and where e-commerce channels are not as well-developed .”
In the aforementioned Outlook for U . S . Agricultural Trade , ERS projected U . S . beef exports for 2021 to be $ 7.1 billion . That was $ 200 million more than the previous report in August .
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Overall , ERS projected U . S . agricultural exports in FY 2021 at $ 152 billion , up $ 11.5 billion from the August forecast , fueled by increased soybean and corn export values .
Meat Supplies Remain Plentiful
“ Ample supplies of beef , pork and poultry increase market price pressure , though disruptions in supply are a threat as well ,” Peel said .
For January through October , total cattle slaughter under federal inspection ( FI ) of 26.76 million head was 859,700 fewer ( -3.11 %) than the same period in 2019 , according to USDA data .
Through October , commercial beef production of 22.56 billion lbs . was 27.9 million lbs . less ( -0.12 %) than the same period in 2019 . Commercial red meat production for the same period was 572.6 million lbs . more (+ 1.26 %) year over year at 46.12 billion lbs .
In November , ERS projected beef production for 2020 — compared to the previous month — to be 85 million lbs . more at 27.22 billion lbs . That was in the monthly LDPO . Estimated beef production for 2021 of 27.36 billion lbs . would be 142 million lbs . more (+ 0.50 %) than in 2020 .
ERS increased estimated total red meat and poultry production for 2020 by 216 million lbs . from the previous month ’ s projection to 106.61 billion lbs . Projected total red meat and poultry production for 2021 of 107.47 billion lbs . would be 865 million lbs . more than this year (+ 0.81 %).
Heading into 2021 , though , the Livestock Marketing Information Center ( LMIC ) expected to see more year-over-year contraction of the beef cowherd .
“ The beef herd ( Jan . 1 ) is expected to be down 0.5 to 1.0 % based on year-to-date slaughter numbers that are above a year ago by about 2 %, and heifer numbers in feedlots ,” said LMIC analysts , in a November Livestock Monitor . “ It appears beef cows held for replacement are likely steady to below a year ago , given the uncertainty of 2020 . Other heifers , those in the feedlot , are also expected to have pulled back . Those on feed are slightly lower than a year ago , while heifer slaughter is about 4 % below last year .”
Last year began with 31.31 million head , which was 1.18 % less ( -374,000 head ) than in 2019 .
“ The total amount of beef , pork and poultry meat supplies to the domestic market in per-capita terms is projected to contract in 2021 and 2022 for the first time since 2014 ,” said FAPRI analysts .
ABOUT THE AUTHOR : Wes Ishmael has been involved with livestock publications since 1983 . Wes grew up in Colorado and has always been in and around the livestock business . He now lives in Benbrook , Texas .
NORTH REGION Will Bollum 507 / 244-0833 will @ limousin365 . com
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60 • JANUARY 2021