this year. The estimated price
in 2021 is $149.47, increasing
to $181.35 in 2028.
USDA projects a feeder steer
price (basis Oklahoma City)
of $146.50 per cwt this year,
declining to $120.15 in 2026
before slowly increasing again.
LMIC projects cow-calf returns
over cash costs, plus pasture
rent, at about $75 per cow for
2020, basis the Southern Plains.
FAPRI estimates are more
pessimistic, projecting net
cow-calf returns at a low
of $16.15 per cow in 2020
and then growing steadily
to $116.08 in 2028.
Meanwhile, there’s plenty
of market uncertainty
going into summer.
Lighter carcass weights
continued to support beef
and fed cattle prices through
April. Surplus moisture
promises significant grazing
opportunity. The number of
calves and cattle lost directly
or indirectly to the stormy
winter remains unknown.
Likewise unknown but likely
supportive, mounting evidence
suggests African swine fever
is creating an unprecedented
void in consumer animal protein
that ultimately must be filled
by international suppliers.
On the other hand, even with
market-depressing carryover
corn stocks, it’s too soon
Photo by Sarah Johnson
194 | JUNE/JULY 2019