Managment

By Derrell S . Peel , Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

Continued growth in beef production in 2018 is likely to pressure cattle and beef prices . Cattle producers have a number of economic conditions to watch that will indicate the impact of factors they cannot control and that will have implications for those factors they do control .

Domestic and international beef demand will continue to be critical factors affecting cattle and beef prices in 2018 . The U . S . economy is currently strong with low unemployment and a stock market supported by lots of cash from earlier Federal Reserve stimulus . Economic growth has been rather plodding but steady over the past few years . Though inflationary fears have not yet materialized , the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2017 as the economy gained strength . The recent tax cuts and proposed infrastructure investments could provide additional fiscal stimulus that adds to inflation concerns . This may pressure the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more and faster in 2018 and beyond . Though no major change is expected at this time , macroeconomic conditions are a factor to watch in 2018 .

Record beef production is expected to combine with growing pork and poultry production to result in record total meat supplies in 2018 . Wholesale and retail beef prices held up well to growing meat production in 2017 , indicating strong beef demand and there is no indication it is changing going into 2018 . However , ample meat supplies will continue to be a demand challenge for beef in the coming year . Pork and poultry production and trade are factors to watch this year .

Beef trade provided much support for cattle and beef markets in 2017 , led by growth in beef exports . Modest beef export growth is expected to continue in 2018 assuming no change in trade policy . However , the cloud of uncertainty due to NAFTA renegotiations continues to hang over

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