Markets
Beef Cattle Market: 2018 in Review and a Look Ahead
By Josh Maples, Mississippi State University
Large supplies, record exports, and trade concerns are just
a few of the topics that dominated the beef headlines in
2018. Amidst all of these factors, U.S. calf and yearling prices
have showed relatively consistent strength throughout the
year. 2019 will likely bring a mostly flat year for national herd
growth which will position the industry at a pivotal point
for supplies and prices moving forward. In this article, we’ll
dig a little deeper into a few key drivers to watch in 2019. has already occurred to work through the cattle and beef
supply chain. The stage is already set for modestly larger
calf and beef supplies in 2019. We can look to 2014-2015
as a mirrored example. 2014 was the low point for most
of the cattle supply numbers (number of cows, calf crop,
etc.), but 2015 was the lowest year of beef production.
Cattle and Calf Supplies Beef production was over 13 percent higher in 2018 than in
2015. Current forecasts suggest an increase of just under
2 percent in 2019. Put it all together and that would be an
approximately 15 percent increase in beef production in just
four years. This would be the fastest four-year growth since
1973-1977. Following the cattle supply story, the increases
are slowing. With respect to the cattle cycle, recent cowherd
trends suggest 2020 could potentially mark the end of the
current U.S. cattle inventory build-up. But it is worth noting
Cattle and beef supplies have been growing since the price
peak in 2014-2015 and this continues to be the primary
headwind to higher prices. The 2018 U.S. calf crop was about
8.5% larger than it was in 2014 – that is nearly 3 million
more calves on the ground. However, that growth has been
slowing recently with 2019 expected to be close to flat
for cow herd growth. It takes time for the expansion that
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