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Of those eight states, beef cow numbers increased year over year
in Missouri (+24,000 head or 1.17%) and Kentucky (+4,000 head
or 0.39%).
For the other six states, year-over-year declines in beef cow numbers
ranged from -19,000 head in Nebraska (-0.98%) to -96,000 head in
Kansas (-6.28%).
Depending on the analysts you follow or how you run the beads
on your own abacus, there’s little to suggest much further contraction
in the nation’s beef cowherd. On the other hand, if trade with China
finally breaks loose, taking more U.S. pork and beef, there could be
some economic incentive to resume herd expansion.
Longer term, in the recent Agricultural Projections to 2029, USDA
analysts say, “The cattle herd is expected to decline cyclically in the
early part of the projection as producers respond to lower returns. A
decline in cattle numbers early in the period will likely contribute to
higher cattle prices, although a modest herd expansion the rest of the
period pressures cattle prices lower.”
Those projections see the beef cowherd declining to 31.27 million
head by 2022 and then gradually building through the remainder of
the projection period to 33.42 million head by 2029.
USDA’s long-term projections forecast the five-area direct fed steer
price this year at $116/cwt. then ranging from $116.37 (2024) to
$121.39 (2023) over the next five years. From there, through 2029,
the estimated range is $110.58 (2028) to $114.70 (2026).
USDA long-term projection see this year’s feeder steer
price (basis Oklahoma City) to be $141/cwt. It ranges from
Meet…
$138.13 (2028) to $151.27 (2023) for the remainder of the
projection period.
Keep in mind short-term projections in USDA’s long-range outlook
began with the October 2019 WASDE report. Projections don’t include
recent trade deals, such as the Japan-U.S. free trade agreement, phase-
one China trade deal or the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
Working Through Current Supplies
The estimated feeder cattle supply outside feedlots Jan. 1 of 26.45
million head was 105,300 fewer (-0.40%) than a year earlier, but there
were 14.68 million head on feed, which was 309,800 more (+2.16%)
than the previous year and record large for the month.
“These numbers show that the last pulse of larger cattle numbers
are currently in feedlots and cattle slaughter will be up in the first
quarter before declining through the second half of the year,” Peel
explained. “However, higher carcass weights are projected to offset a
slight decline in cattle slaughter and push total 2020 beef production
higher to new record levels. Beef production is likely, however, to be
lower year over year by the fourth quarter of the year.”
For carcass weight perspective, the average steer dressed weight
in January was 904 lbs., according to USDA’s monthly Livestock
Slaughter report. That was 18 lbs. more than the same month a year
earlier. The average dressed heifer weight of 833 lbs. was 9 lbs. more
than a year earlier.
Last year, harsh, wet and cold weather hammered feedlot performance.
Conversely, this year’s mostly open winter is boosting performance.
Frank
Larry Smith, owner
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Mobile: 513.218.2408 • [email protected]
Scott Minges, manager: 513/616-8499
[email protected]
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54
continued on page 56
• APRIL 2020
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