Expectations by some for the return of a La Niña weather pattern heading
into this summer also supports the notion of bountiful grain production.
Art Douglas, PhD, professor emeritus at Creighton University and long-
time CattleFax meteorologist told participants at the CattleFax outlook
session La Niña will shift much of the nation outside of the northwest and
southeastern portions of the country toward conditions slightly warmer
and drier than last year, which will be favorable for planting and growing
conditions during the spring and summer.
The flipside is that La Niña typically means below normal
precipitation in Texas and the Southwest.
As we continue to grow, we are adding breed-leading genetics
through top herd sires and females. Our most recent herd sire addition
illustrates the caliber of cattle we are building our herd around.
Cyclical Herd Expansion Ends
Now, for some fundamental reasons behind the expected
improvement in cattle prices.
First, national beef cowherd expansion ended last year. There were
31.31 million beef cows at the beginning of this year, which was
374,000 head fewer (-1.18%) than the same time a year earlier.
“The peak beef cow inventory for 2019 was 31.7 million (revised
down by 75,000 head from the previous report),” explained Derrell
Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State
University, in his mid-January market comments. “This means the
total herd expansion in this cycle was an increase of 2.73 million
head from the 2014 low of 29.0 million cows. That is a total cyclical
expansion of 9.4% or an average of 1.9% per year for the five years
of expansion.”
Similarly, the number of beef replacement heifers Jan. 1 of 5.77
million head were 113,000 head fewer (-1.92%) than the previous year.
“The inventory of beef replacement heifers is 18.4% of the beef
cow inventory, a level that historically has not indicated significant
liquidation,” Peel explained. “However, in 2019, replacement heifers
were 18.6% percent of the beef cow inventory, but sharply higher beef
cow slaughter at the end of the year pushed the culling rate fractionally
over 10% and resulted in modest reduction in the herd inventory.”
States with 1 million or more beef cows at the beginning of the year,
and their ranking by size, were the same as a year earlier. In order of
size, with Jan. 1 cow numbers in parenthesis: Texas (4.57 million);
Oklahoma (2.09 million); Missouri (2.08 million); Nebraska (1.92
million); South Dakota (1.73 million); Kansas (1.43 million);
Montana (1.43 million); and Kentucky (1.01 million).
CELL Granite 9245G
Granite offers a balance of
traits that are integral to
beef cattle production with
Homo Black/ Homo Polled • 34% Lim-Flex
impressive calving-ease,
HA Cowboy Up 5405 x MAGS Xtra Rest
CD: 10 BW: 0.6 WW: 70 YW: 109 MK: 12 CM: 4 SC: 0.9 growth and carcass numbers.
DC: 16 YG: -.12 CW: 48 RE: .70 MB: .25 $MTI: 61
SEMEN $40
continued on page 54
• APRIL 2020
Contact us for availability.
Watch for our
4 Bred Females & 2 Bulls at the
SAT., MAY 30 • 1 PM CST
Laclede County Fairgrounds • Lebanon, MO
PUREBRED & LIM-FLEX
“Better Genetics for Bigger Gains”
JAMES D. HERR
17329 S. Nebo Dr. - Versailles, MO 65084
ph: 573/378-0500 - fax: 573/378-5137 - email: [email protected]
53