continued from page 40
slaughter will decline 400,000 head to 25.7 million head . Commercial beef production will contract over the next several years ; starting with a 2 % decline in 2022 .
Kevin Good , vice president of industry relations and analysis at CattleFax , pointed out U . S . beef cow inventories fell more than 700,000 head from last year and are nearly 1.6 million less than the cyclical peak . This year , the beef cow herd will be near 30.1 million head .
Drought Will Decide Expansion Opportunity
Specifically , the beef cow inventory on Jan . 1 was 30.125 million head , which was 718,500 head fewer ( -2.3 %) than the same time last year , according to USDA ’ s Cattle report . That was the fewest since 2015 and was the largest year-over-year decline since 1996-97 , according to David Anderson , Extension livestock economist at Texas A & M University , in a February issue of In the Cattle Markets . He added the report included a significant revision of 314,000 fewer head in the previous year ’ s beef cow inventory .
Although drought contributed to the decline in beef cows , Anderson said calf prices , relative to costs , also forced some culling .
Beef heifers held for replacement of 5.611 million head were 191,600 head fewer ( -3.3 %) than the previous year .
“ That is the fewest replacement heifers held back since Jan . 1 , 2014 ,” Anderson said . “ While fewer replacements would be needed with a smaller cow herd , a reduction this large indicates some expectations of more herd contraction .”
The calculated feeder supply outside of feedlots of 25.537 million head was 676,000 head fewer ( -2.6 %) than last year . Dairy cows of 9.375 million head were 67,400 head fewer ( -0.7 %). All cattle and calves of 91.902 million head were 1.888 million head fewer ( -2.0 %).
“ The inventory report indicates we are headed toward less beef production and higher prices ,” Anderson explained . “ A cow herd of this size should also lead to some expectations of calf prices approaching the rarified air of the years following the Texas 2010- 2012 drought . The current drought and its development over the coming months will dictate a lot about the cow herd over this year . But , good beef demand should also pull prices higher on top of available supplies .”
As of March 3 , nearly 60 % of the Continental U . S . was suffering some degree of drought , according to the U . S . Drought Monitor . Specifically , moderate to exceptional drought covered 59.2 % of the country compared to 46.6 % at the same time last year when drought was already a problem in some regions .
La Niña remains firmly in control of the ocean-atmosphere system , and that is unlikely to change this spring , said meteorologist Matt Makens , during the CattleFax Outlook Seminar .
Barring any change to the La Niña outlook or sudden warming in the Gulf of Alaska , Makens explained that likely means dryness continues across the Southwest and South with warm temperatures . The Northern Plains and Corn Belt are expected to have wetness farther east this spring and drier conditions for this summer , with temperatures closer to normal versus last year .
Checking All The Boxes
Breeding cattle that meet the demands of the entire production chain has been our focus since day one . Raising cattle that excel in many facets is a huge challenge , but we believe that is the best way to stay efficient and competitive as an industry . If you are looking for genetics that excel from pasture to plate we encourage you to contact us for the genetics we have available .
Lewis Harbinger H12H
HB • HP • 33 % LF
Sire : Amen The Rock Dam : Lewis Feodora F208 CD : 20 BW : -3.3 WW : 78 YW : 133 MK : 23 CM : 11 DC : 19 YG : 0.02 CW : 48 RE : 0.67 MB : 0.57 $ MI : 74
This bull illustrates many things we strive for . His curve bending EPD profile along with his ideal conformation and structural soundness checks a lot of the boxes the industry demands . If you ’ re in the market for cattle that have been bred for calving ease , growth and carcass merit , give us a call . Contact owners or Grassroots Genetics for volume commercial pricing .
His first calves are on the ground and we couldn ’ t be more pleased .
Bulls and Females for sale private treaty year around .
MAT & WENDY LEWIS 30849 Co . Rd . 56 • Iliff , CO 80736 • ( 970 ) 580-8209 • matlewis16 @ gmail . com
42 • APRIL 2022