Lef-Briefing Note#1 Post Ebola Macro-Economic Policy Advisory-Liberia | Page 2

2. Heighten the possibility of politically motivated uprising (riots, protests and the likes)
creating a tensed security situation if the implementation of the “State of Emergency”
becomes too heavy for the public to bear. Otherwise, political detractors may take
advantage of the situation to manipulate it.

On 31st October, UNDP released a Policy Note that supported our prediction by providing real
data on the prevailing condition nearly two months after on the economic impact of the virus on
the MRU region. It indicated amongst other things that “In total, the governments of Guinea,
Liberia and Sierra Leone are experiencing an economic shortfall of US$ 328 million to be able to
function at pre-crisis levels…”1 Their analysis pointed to a net household effect of about 35%
reduction in income in Liberia alone while Government transfer (non-investment) spending to
fight the virus rose to 30% in all three countries.
In a related document, on 21st November 2014, the President of the UN Security Council, during
his statement at the opening of the 7318th Meeting of the Security Council, reiterated the “grave
concern about the unprecedented extent of the Ebola outbreak in Africa, which constitutes a
threat to international peace and security…”2 This further substantiates the extent by which the
epidemic has weakened national and regional security and threatened global peace as predicted
in our analysis.
Three months later; in an attempt to advance a note on the probable policy measures that could
be taken by policy makers to effect a swift turn around in the aftermath of the effect of the virus,
we recommend the following short-term expansionary policy measures and programmes for
consideration:

1

UNDP Policy Note: 31st October (http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/crisis-preventionand-recovery/undp-s-policy-notes-on-the-economic-impact-of-the-ebola-virus-in/)
2
Statement by the President of the UN Security Council; 21st November 2014; during its 7318th Meeting:
http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/PRST/2014/24