Lee NYC Manhattan Retail Trend Tracker 3Q2014 | Page 3

LEE NYC RETAIL

MANHATTAN TREND TRACKER
3Q2014
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

In 2013, Manhattan’s population of 1.6 million residents and
its over 54 million tourists spent approximately $33.4 billion on
goods, services, and dining. In 2014, the household income
will average $115,812 – and that number is expected to reach
$141,798 by 2019.
Tourism in 2013 was estimated at 54.3 million visitors, roughly
3 percent higher than 2012 and a 19 percent increase from the
45.8 million visitors in 2009. In the second quarter of 2014, the
U.S. Gross Domestic Product increased at a rate of 4.6 percent.
This is greater growth than the quarterly 1.7 percent growth
averaged over the past ten years. The Commerce Department
announced in August that the trade gap shrank from $40.3
billion in July to $40.1 billion, the lowest reading since January.
From 2010 through 2012, the last year with available statistics,
consumer spending per person in New York increased a total of
12%, close to the 10.7% national average.
In 2012, spending per capita in New York was $42,043.
One of the biggest unknowns for the retail industry is how the
policies of the current administration will impact their businesses.
4,000,000

11.2%

3,500,000
4,000,000
4,000,000

3,500,000

11.0%
11.2%
11.2%

3,000,000
3,500,000
3,500,000

3,000,000

10.8% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
11.0%
10.8%
11.0%

2,500,000
3,000,000
3,000,000

2,500,000

10.6%
10.8%
10.8%

2,000,000

10.4%
10.6%
10.6%

1,500,000

10.2%
10.4%
10.4%

10.2%

1,000,000
1,500,000
1,500,000

1,000,000

10.0%
10.2%
10.2%

500,000
1,000,000
1,000,000

500,000

9.8%
10.0%
10.0%

0

9.6%
9.8%
9.8%

9.6%

9.6%
9.6%

Government

11.0%

0
0

Retail Trade Employment

NEW YORK CITY TOURISM

AVERAGE SALARY:
Average Salary:
$80,425
$80,425

Professional and Technical

20
20
04
04
20
20
04
20
05
05
20
20
05
20
06
06
20
20
06
20
07
07
20
20
07
20
08
08
20
20
08
20
09
09
2
20
20 2 009
10 0
10 0
24
20
20 2 010
11 0
11 0
25
20
20 2 011
12 0
12 0
20
6
20
20 2 12
13 0
13 0
20
7
20 13
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13

500,000 0
500,000

2013 11.2% YORK CITY WAGES
NEW

10.0%

Real Estate

55

$45.00

$40.00

50

MILLIONS

4,000,000
AVERAGE YEARLY EMPLOYMENT

NUMBER OF JOBS

In addition, on September 30, Mayor de Blasio signed into
law a bill that will increase the minimum wage for workers
employed by private companies that receive more than $1
million in city subsidies. The Living Wage will be set at $13.13
for employees without health benefits, or $11.50 per hour for
employees receiving benefits, and will be adjusted each year
to match changes in the Consumer Price Index. According to
Mayor de Blasio, the increase will benefit 18,000 employees
of private companies in the food services, retail, construction,
and other industries over the next five years. New York State’s
minimum wage is currently $8.00 an hour, set to increase to
$8.75 on December 31, and $9 by the end of 2015, according
to the National Conference of State Legislature. The mayor sees
his increase as a stepping stone to raising the minimum wage
in New York to $10.10 per hour. Earlier in the year, President
Obama raised the minimum wage for workers under federal
contracts to $10.10 per hour.

10.4%
Information

1,500,000
2,000,000
2,000,000

The lease renewal should be a minimum of ten years, unless
the landlord and tenant agree on a shorter term. The program
would create a new city-supervised mediation program for
lease renewal negotiations and allow landlords to decline a
renewal only under certain circumstances. Champions of the
bill promote that it will save “mom and pop” shops, but it has
reached opposition from the real estate community.

Finance and Insurance
10.6%

2,000,000
2,500,000
2,500,000

The City Council’s Committee on Small Business is proposing a
bill called the “Small Business Jobs Survival Act” that reworks the
City’s commercial renewal process. The provision applies to any
lease that expires on or after January 1, 2015.

$35.00
45
$30.00
40
$25.00

9.8%
Education

Retail Trade Employment
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Private Sector Employment
Retail Trade Employment
Private Sector Employment
Retail Trade Employment
$0
$50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300
Retail Trade Composition of Total Private Employment
Private Sector Employment
Retail Trade Composition of Total Private Employment
THOUSANDS
Private Sector Employment
Retail Trade Composition of Total Private Employment
New York State Department of Labor Total Private Employment
New York State Department of Labor
Retail Trade Composition of

35

30

$20.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Number of Tourists

nycgo.com

Spending by Tourists

$15.00

BILLIONS

In September, New York City’s unemployment rate dipped 50
basis points from August, to 6.8 percent – the lowest it has been
since December 2008. Year-over-year private sector employment
added 95,400 jobs and the retail trade sector added 15,700
jobs, a 4.6 percent increase. The strengthening job market and
economy are heating up Manhattan retail activity.