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Nato Strategic Direction - South
By MAJ Carlos Pereira ( ESP )
The evolution of the global environment poses significant leadership and organisational challenges in NATO allies . This is further compounded by the inter-connexion of diverse people due to globalization , and the advent of modern technologies . Furthermore , the NATO ’ s challengers have developed new methods , based on asymmetric capabilities , hampering the NATO ’ s ability to act in defence of its member nations .
The NATO Southern Flank presents specific characteristics and challenges that require a particular approach to respond efficiently . Thus , NATO is developing a comprehensive strategy : the NATO Strategic Direction-South .
The Southern Flank General Characteristics
The situation and future evolution of the NATO ’ s “ Southern Flank ” can be considered more immediate and unpredictable as compared to the threat along the Eastern flank . Much of this threat stems from the dynamic instability associated with the Arab Spring , the expansion of Jihadism , and the influx of illegal immigration . State-sponsored or independent terrorist attacks on NATO members are considered more likely than traditional conventional force attacks . Nevertheless , the response to such an attack may vary enormously , including many different types of threat and risks .
On the other hand , the Alliance must be also prepared to address the potential for Article 5 operations and the requirement for a military response to a conventional attack on NATO territory from the South , including a potential military incursion into the territory of a southern Ally .
Threats and Risks
The threats and challenges emanating from the south are diversifying and becoming more insidious ; they are now more potent than latent . Several are a result of repressive , weak or ineffective governance . This has led to poor social and economic conditions as the source of popular disenfranchisement , humanitarian crisis and other destabilising influences which have infected the region , fuelled by radical ideology . They can be classified :
�� Inter-State Conflict . Potential state adversaries may enter into direct conflict with Nations individually , or the Alliance collectively , thereby invoking Article 5 . It could also include the potential for spill-over impacts on NATO , as a third party , from conflict between non-NATO belligerents . The means by which Nations may feel these impacts are varied , and include conventional , hybrid warfare , WMD and cyber .
�� Proliferation . This includes from transnational smuggling of small arms and light weapons , through MANPADs , to the technology transfer of WMD .
�� Terrorism and Insurgency . These could identify violent non-state actors , several with state-like characteristics ( de facto out of central authority areas ), other violent groups able to either inside the country of their origin or internationally . These actors want to undermine the functioning states in the region , and risks being exported through attacks against Alliance populations at home . These actors can develop asymmetric warfare tactics .
Libya – example of ineffective governance
Relevant regional actors
The Southern Flank already presents a significant implication of different individual allied nations or EU actions . Therefore , NATO must understand the complexity of the region to provide appropriate responses to the security problems .
- European Union . EU provides a solid political framework to develop relationships in many different levels , through regional organizations , wide initiatives , agreements among group of nations and bilateral agreements . Thus , the Joint Africa-EU Strategy reflects the desire to forge stronger links between the two continents in key areas of cooperation and to provide
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