NATO ’ s Southern Flank Threats by MAJ Mario Sorrentino ( ITA ) LANDCOM G-2
NATO ’ s Southern Flank
“
The security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA ) have reached a level unprecedented in modern times ” - Jens Stoltenberg , NATO Secretary General , 30 April 2015 .
General Introduction
NATO ’ s Southern Flank has widened to include not only the Middle East and North Africa , but also moved further south to include the Sahel , as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and adjacent areas , waters and airspace . During the 2014 Wales Summit , it was described as an area of growing instability with trans-national and multi-dimensional threats , where achieving peace and stability would be essential for Alliance security .
Threat Evolution
Since the early 2010s , not only Russia ’ s mounting aggression has changed the outlook for NATO ’ s Eastern flank but the
Southern flank has also started to be exposed to a multitude of destabilizing trends . The security situation in the Middle East and Africa has deteriorated due to a combination of factors that are causing loss of life , fueling large-scale migration flows and inspiring terrorist attacks in Allied countries and elsewhere . NATO ’ s Southern flank poses a set of unique challenges for the alliance , as the region is exposed to complex and diverse threats from a combination of state and non-state actors .
Threats from state and non-state actors a . The Rise of Hybrid Warfare : Hybrid warfare involves the integration and fusion of regular and irregular approaches to war . In the NATO context , the need to develop a more robust posture on hybrid war was linked to Russia ’ s aggression in Ukraine . But the threat of hybrid warfare is not limited to the alliance ’ s Eastern flank . With Russia ’ s growing military presence in Syria , one cannot totally rule out the prospect of a low intensity hybrid war affecting countries along NATO ’ s Southern flank . b . Russia ’ s Anti-Access and Area-Denial ( A2 / AD ) buildup : Although the Russian Federation has been NATO ’ s traditional Eastern flank challenger , Moscow ’ s military deployments in Syria since September 2015 have compelled NATO policymakers to revisit Russia ’ s role in relation to the Southern flank as well . The presence of very sophisticated air defenses and aircraft capable of air-to-air combat suggested the existence of a Russian Anti-Access and Area-Denial ( A2 / AD ) bubble in the Eastern Mediterranean . Russia is on the verge of becoming NATO ’ s permanent Southern flank neighbor . c . Iran ’ s ballistic-missile proliferation : Another state that poses a security challenge to the NATO alliance is Iran . Tehran already has a significant arsenal of ballistic missiles and has been gradually developing its missiles program . Approximate ranges of Iran ’ s solid and liquid-fuel , medium-range ballistic missiles at between 1,200 and 1,900 miles . Iran could theoretically target countries in the NATO Alliance . d . State Failure : Beyond specific threats from individual countries , NATO must also confront the broader danger of state failure . The Arab Spring that erupted
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