MAGAZINE
FALL 2021 in and / or credited countries more in Sub-Saharan Region .
ARMS SALES Arms sales between 2016-20 and 2011-15 increased by 25 percent and 12 percent in Middle East and Europe , while decreased by 13 percent , 43 percent and 8 percent in Africa , the Americas and Asia and Oceania10 , respectively . Despite the decline , Africa continues to be one of China ’ s most important arms market , given that a growing number of military and security deals are accompanied by buying of Chinese arms . Unfortunately for Africa , these sales are usually of lower quality equipment ( compared to that of Western countries and Russia ) 11 .
Chinese sales accounted for 4 percent in 2019 ; dropping from 14 percent in 2015 and roughly 25 percent in 2013 . China faces many challenges such as a underdeveloped arms industry ( compared to that of Russia and the USA ), a need to supply its own large and expanding military , and having a competing focus on sale of arms to Pakistan and Bangladesh ( Figure 9 ).
Figure 9 Major Players in African Arms Market ( 2000-19 ) / Source : SIPRI Exporters have different arms sales strategies for North and Sub-Saharan regions ( Figure 10 ). From 2010 to 2019 , Sub- Saharan Africa accounted for only 19 percent of imports where as shown in Figure 19-1 . China closely followed Russia by 29 percent to 32 percent . During this period , arms imports has reportedly fell by 55 percent in 2015-19 compared to 2010- 14.12
In the same term , North Africa accounted for 81 percent of imports where , as shown in Figure 19-3 . Russia accounted for 47 percent of imports , followed only by 19 percent by France and US . The import of arms has reportedly increased by 68 percent between 2015-19 and 2010-14 . Algeria accounted for more than 75 percent of imports due to ongoing tensions with Morocco , conflict in Libya , surrounding extremist and separatist groups , and existence of military-led decision making in the political sphere .
COVID-19 AND VACCINE COVID-19 has struck the continent with new emerging variants . Economies were already in critical external debt levels before
COVID-19 and are now struck by slowing external investments , slump in oil prices and increase health expenditures . Local health administrations underreport cases and death tolls and are far from accessing to sufficient number of vaccines before 2023 . These create valuable opportunities for China to improve its soft power in the continent .
China and Russia , which have reportedly pre-booked half of world vaccine supply for 2021 are both competing and cooperating in the effort to reach out to regions in order to support their soft power development ( Latin America , Asia and Africa ) 13 . China , similar to Russia , is both selling and making agreements to build vaccine production facilities , which are expected to prolong their influence even after the pandemic wanes ( Figure 11 ). However , experts argue there are limitations for both China , and particularly Russia , in reaching the necessary production capacity to fulfill such high volumes . Domestic and export markets might create unexpected pressure depending on which to be prioritized .
CHINA-RUSSIA RELATIONS IN AFRICA
Figure 10 African Arms Imports by Region / Source : SIPRI
Many countries have substantial economic , political and military influence in Africa . For China , Africa has relatively been an easy ground in terms of diplomacy and has not caused a major conflict with any other major player . Russia in the last decade has also been one of those major players . China and Russia seem to be following their own agendas and , despite differences in their approaches in Africa , the two countries support each other in the UN . Analysts must be able to analyze implications of Russia- China cooperation and competition , which will likely have an impact on NATO member and partner countries .
CHINESE STRATEGY AND LINES OF EFFORT IN AFRICA Considering the proportion of economic activities in Africa to China ’ s global economic footprint , and given the low priority of Africa within China ’ s overall strategic planning , some experts argue that China ’ s activities in Africa are given “ disproportionate level of international attention ” 15 . Analysts must be able to recognize the difference between Chinese words and deeds , and understand China ’ s true intentions in Africa , and their importance and relevance in broader foreign policies .
10 . https :// reliefweb . int / sites / reliefweb . int / files / resources / fs _ 2103 _ at _ 2020 . pdf 11 . https :// www . sipri . org / sites / default / files / 2021-03 / fs _ 2103 _ at _ 2020 _ v2 . pdf 12 . https :// armstrade . sipri . org / armstrade / page / values . php , Author ’ s own calculations
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13 . https :// www . biospectrumindia . com / news / 57 / 18526 / western-powers-lose-while-russia-chinagain-with-covid-19-vaccine-diplomacy . html
15 . https :// www . cfr . org / backgrounder / china-africa