Opinioni
League from a regional to a national party and has used the ‘Trump playbook’ to play on questions of identity and whiteness. Italy has taken the massive brunt of immigration, and Europe is often blamed for this. Despite this, and the unpopularity of the Euro, most parties have moderated their language on Europe, making it less of a key issue for this election. This is probably as a result of Brexit, which has had a moderating effect on Salvini and the Five Star Movement who have pulled back on their proposed referendum.
What is the most likely outcome?
The centre-right will probably ‘win’ in terms of seats, but the most likely outcome is that nobody will win and the moderate forces on both sides will cobble together a government. A lot will depend on the bargaining after the election, in which Matarella, the President, will play a big part. After Renzi’s failed referendum and resignation, he is not seen as the answer, and one of the only certainties of this referendum is that the centre-left will not win. The centre-left should have shifted the focus to Gentiloni, who is more trusted than Renzi as his time in government seems to have been fairly stable. Dividing the left is also disastrous for the party, and the new constituency system will work against their favour as they are likely to lose a lot of the constituencies they might have otherwise won as the votes will be split. Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is likely to win 17/18% of the vote. He is still an important figure, partly because of his media power, and he will definitely have a role in post-election deals. The foreign media tend to focus on him, but he is not the most important feature as Salvini is the one setting the agenda for this election. The Five Star Movement will do very well, gaining around 28/29% of the vote. They have already been successful in local elections in Turin and Rome, and their lack of experience has worked in their favour. Even if they do well in the election, they won’t be able to govern and its uncertain whether they are prepared to make a deal with another party. The Five Star Movement is so concerned with denouncing these dishonest politicians, but they do not propose real solutions and ideas about what to do. This is echoed in other parts of the Italian system, as there is a lot of divisive and strong campaigning against immigration and racism but no real sense that anybody has got the solutions to the problems Italy faces.