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Trends
Just what is a trend?
In current colloquial usage, a
trend is something that is "in"
at the moment. In economic and
social science terms, trends are
changes in the fabric of the values and behaviour of society. A
trend thus describes the prevailing taste of a certain time.
What use are trends to me?
Companies that spot trends
early, i.e. recognise changes
in consumer behaviour, have
an edge which, in the best
case scenario, minimises flops
and results in more sales success. Future markets are spotted earlier on and can thus also
be designed, i.e. appropriate
products can be developed for
them. Companies involved in
trend research have an early
warning system that can guide
their actions and offers them
planning reliability.
What difficulties do trends
involve?
Trends are not just facts. Information about the past and the
present, which is part of a trend,
consists of facts. The more important aspects of trends, future projections, are, however,
characterised by personal assessments, assumptions, speculation and maybe also visions.
And it's not getting any easier,
because our world is becoming ever more complex. Some
things change, some stay the
same. What stays in; what becomes in? What's out? Increasing dynamism and complexity
are making it harder to make
predictions, as the number of
alternative developments and
possibilities is on the rise.
How do trends often arise?
Our culture is typified by transience. We live in an age of
constant change in our environment. Humans themselves
are the main cause of changes
and yet the changes are, for the
most part, unpredictable. We
now know that people behave
more emotionally than previously thought, which is why an
assessment of the market using
only rational economic models often leads to misinterpretations. People are unpredictable, both en masse as well
as individually. Variety and
change are basic human needs
and when a need has been satisfied, then it's characteristic
of humans that they yearn for
something new. After a trend
has gone on for a certain period
of time, things reach a saturation point and there are signs of
fatigue that facilitate a change
or a countertrend.
How can I recognise trends?
The development of sales
shows the first indications of
changes in consumer behaviour. Unfortunately, the decisive patterns – i.e. the 'why'
behind trends – are not so easily revealed. Spotting trends is
above all a matter of observation and information compression. When I come across the
same phenomena in different
places, even with different objects of our everyday culture,
then I can assume that this observation is based on a trend.
Where can I find trends?
Everywhere, in fact – assumed
that you keep your eyes open and
your senses are always taking in
things. The problem, though, is
that we ignore 99% of all the impressions that we come across
in a day. Our brain just mercilessly blanks out everything that
doesn't seem relevant to us and
doesn't even notice that it's doing it. It's a form of self-protection from an information overload, since we live in a world
that's rich in information, especially of the visual kind.
When it comes to spotting
trends, however, it's disastrous
when so much information
is blocked out, because you
have to pick up on the environment and note what's happening as well as you possibly can.
That's why you should also
consciously look at what the
people you see on the street are
wearing, at what other people
put on the conveyor belt when
paying for their shopping, at
the children on the playground
in the park and take note of
what they're playing with and
how etc.. Make mindful and
precise observations on your
surroundings. Many trends are
evident in not just one sector
but across the whole spectrum
of lifestyle products – and toys
are no exception.
How can you measure and
analyse trends?
Trends can be observed but are
hard to measure. We can measure what was true in the past
and what is true at the present.
If, however, we want to measure what the future will bring,
then we would have to assume
linear development and that
means that our environment is
static; but our environment is
dynamic and ever-changing.
Society is in continuous flux.
Surveys try to ask rational questions about our emotional decisions. Thanks to brain research,
however, we know that almost
80% of all our purchasing decisions are made unconsciously. Psychologists regard wishes
as the expression of material or
mental shortcomings. Trend researchers try to put their finger
on these wishes and needs by
means of semiotic trend analyses. Semiotics is the study of
signs, of hidden meanings. Colours, shapes, patterns, behaviour, homes, clothes ... all these
non-verbal forms of expression betray a lot about society's
mental states and attitudes towards values at an early stage.
Many trend researchers assume
that signs can betray a frame of
mind long befor RvR7F'BFƶ