KIA&B 2019 March/April 2019 | Page 22

2019 Kansas Employment Forecast ansas total nonfarm employment increased by approximately 20,000 workers from November 2017 to November 2018, a 1.4 percent increase, with growth across most sectors. This was a substantial upturn in employment after near- zero employment growth in the state in 2016 and 2017, with only a cumulative 0.2 percent increase over those two years. Kansas’s unemployment rate has continued to decline in 2018 to 3.2 percent in November 2018, the lowest level in the state since May 1999. Nationally, unemployment also declined in 2018 to a low of 3.7 percent in November 2018. In Kansas, employment growth is projected to continue into 2019 at 1.1 percent, which is expected to add more than 15,000 net new jobs statewide. Growth is forecast to be the strongest in the production sectors, while the government sector is projected to have the slowest employment growth in the Kansas economy. K November 2018, as Kansas has grown in importance as a Midwestern transportation hub. The retail and wholesale trade sectors have experienced employment declines in recent years, in part due to a 2.4 percent decline in inflation-adjusted taxable retail sales in Kansas in 2017. Both sectors are projected to have modest job gains in 2019. Service sector employment is projected to increase 1.1 percent, which would add more than 7,000 new jobs to the Kansas economy. Growth across the service sector is forecast to be broad-based, with the financial activities, professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality sectors each projected to add between 1,500 and 2,700 new jobs. The information sector is the only service sector forecast to decline in employment, with a 4.2 percent contraction, which would be the twelfth consecutive year of employment decline in the sector in Kansas. The production sector employment growth is forecast Employment in Kansas’ governmental sector is forecast to remain robust in 2019 after being the fastest growing to grow 0.5 percent in 2019. Growth is expected 2,700 new economy jobs. The sector service sector to decline in sector, sector of the Kansas in information 2018. The sector is is the only to primarily occur forecast in the local government projected to add approximately 3,500 new jobs in which comprises approximately 70 percent of of total employment, with a 4.2 percent contraction, which would be the twelfth consecutive year 2019, for 1.5 percent growth. The growth is expected government employment in the state. Federal and employment decline in the sector in Kansas. state government employment are projected to grow to be broad-based in the sector, with construction • Employment Kansas’ and governmental sector is forecast employment growing 1.9 in percent manufacturing modestly to as grow well. 0.5 percent in 2019. Growth is employment increasing by 1.4 percent. If growth Nationally, real GDP comprises grew 3 percent from the third expected to primarily occur in the local government sector, which approximately 70 continues as expected, 2018 and 2019 would be the quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018, which was percent government employment state. Federal state government first two-year period of in total which both construction and in the primarily driven and by increases in personal consumption manufacturing employment increased consecutively and private investment. National employment are projected to grow modestly as expenditures well. since 2013 and 2014. employment increased by 1.7 percent from October 2017 to October Nationally, GDP transportation grew 3 percent the third quarter Employment in the real trade, and from utilities 2018. of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018, sector which is projected to grow 1.2 percent in 2019, adding CEDBR, Wichita expenditures State University, Campus was primarily driven by increases in personal consumption and private Box #121, 1845 more than 3,200 jobs. Growth has been led in recent Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0121 investment. National employment increased by 1.7 percent from October 2017 to October years by the transportation and warehousing sector, Telephone: (316) 978-3225 Fax: (316) 978-3950 www. 2018. by more than 2,000 jobs in 2016 and which grew cedbr.org 2017 and added 4,800 jobs from November 2017 to Kansas Employment by Industry Summary* 2018-2019 Percent Change 2017 (a) 2018 (e) 1,403,646 1,424,966 1,440,147 15,182 1.1% Production Sectors 228,650 232,689 236,188 3,499 1.5% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 267,643 271,863 275,091 3,228 1.2% Service Sectors 651,075 660,789 667,941 7,151 1.1% Government 256,279 259,625 260,927 1,303 0.5% Total Nonfarm 2019 (f) 2018-2019 Level Change *Annual values are derived from average quarterly observations and projections. (a) actual (e) estimated (f) forecasted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics data & Wichita State University CEDBR forecast 20 KANSAS INSURANCE AGENT & BROKER | March - April 2019 | KIA&B_MarApr2019_Draft.indd 20 4/19/2019 10:11:40 AM