2019 Kansas Employment Forecast
ansas total nonfarm employment increased by
approximately 20,000 workers from November
2017 to November 2018, a 1.4 percent
increase, with growth across most sectors.
This was a substantial upturn in employment after near-
zero employment growth in the state in 2016 and 2017,
with only a cumulative 0.2 percent increase over those
two years. Kansas’s unemployment rate has continued
to decline in 2018 to 3.2 percent in November 2018,
the lowest level in the state since May 1999. Nationally,
unemployment also declined in 2018 to a low of 3.7
percent in November 2018.
In Kansas, employment growth is projected to continue
into 2019 at 1.1 percent, which is expected to add more
than 15,000 net new jobs statewide. Growth is forecast
to be the strongest in the production sectors, while
the government sector is projected to have the slowest
employment growth in the Kansas economy.
K
November 2018, as Kansas has grown in importance
as a Midwestern transportation hub. The retail and
wholesale trade sectors have experienced employment
declines in recent years, in part due to a 2.4 percent
decline in inflation-adjusted taxable retail sales in
Kansas in 2017. Both sectors are projected to have
modest job gains in 2019.
Service sector employment is projected to increase
1.1 percent, which would add more than 7,000 new
jobs to the Kansas economy. Growth across the service
sector is forecast to be broad-based, with the financial
activities, professional and business services, education
and health services, and leisure and hospitality sectors
each projected to add between 1,500 and 2,700 new
jobs. The information sector is the only service sector
forecast to decline in employment, with a 4.2 percent
contraction, which would be the twelfth consecutive
year of employment decline in the sector in Kansas.
The production sector employment growth is forecast
Employment in Kansas’ governmental sector is forecast
to remain robust in 2019 after being the fastest growing
to grow 0.5 percent in 2019. Growth is expected
2,700
new economy
jobs. The
sector
service sector
to decline
in sector,
sector of the
Kansas
in information
2018. The sector
is is the only
to primarily
occur forecast
in the local
government
projected to
add
approximately
3,500
new
jobs
in
which
comprises
approximately
70
percent
of of
total
employment, with a 4.2 percent contraction, which would be the twelfth consecutive year
2019, for 1.5 percent growth. The growth is expected
government employment in the state. Federal and
employment decline in the sector in Kansas. state government employment are projected to grow
to be broad-based in the sector, with construction
• Employment
Kansas’ and
governmental
sector is forecast
employment
growing 1.9 in percent
manufacturing
modestly to
as grow
well. 0.5 percent in 2019. Growth is
employment
increasing
by
1.4
percent.
If
growth
Nationally,
real
GDP comprises
grew 3 percent
from the third
expected to primarily occur in the local government sector, which
approximately
70
continues as expected, 2018 and 2019 would be the
quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018, which was
percent
government
employment
state. Federal
state government
first two-year
period of in total
which
both construction
and in the primarily
driven and
by increases
in personal consumption
manufacturing
employment
increased consecutively
and private investment. National
employment
are projected
to grow modestly as expenditures
well.
since 2013 and 2014.
employment increased by 1.7 percent from October
2017 to October
Nationally,
GDP transportation
grew 3 percent
the third quarter
Employment
in the real
trade,
and from
utilities
2018. of 2017 to the third quarter of 2018,
sector which
is projected
to grow 1.2
percent
in 2019, adding
CEDBR,
Wichita expenditures
State University,
Campus
was primarily
driven
by increases
in personal
consumption
and
private Box #121, 1845
more than 3,200 jobs. Growth has been led in recent
Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0121
investment. National employment increased by 1.7
percent from October 2017 to October
years by the transportation and warehousing sector,
Telephone: (316) 978-3225 Fax: (316) 978-3950 www.
2018. by more than 2,000 jobs in 2016 and
which grew
cedbr.org
2017 and added 4,800 jobs from November 2017 to
Kansas Employment by Industry Summary*
2018-2019
Percent
Change
2017 (a) 2018 (e) 1,403,646 1,424,966 1,440,147 15,182 1.1%
Production Sectors 228,650 232,689 236,188 3,499 1.5%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 267,643 271,863 275,091 3,228 1.2%
Service Sectors 651,075 660,789 667,941 7,151 1.1%
Government 256,279 259,625 260,927 1,303 0.5%
Total Nonfarm
2019 (f)
2018-2019
Level
Change
*Annual values are derived from average quarterly observations and projections.
(a) actual (e) estimated (f) forecasted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics data & Wichita State University CEDBR forecast
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KANSAS INSURANCE AGENT & BROKER | March - April 2019 |
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