JUNE_2020_DIGITAL_Magazine | Page 20

MARKET UPDATE April Multifamily Performance in the Face of COVID-19 by Jordan Brooks Market Analyst | ALN Apartment Data, Inc. The dominant story of 2020 continues to be COVID-19 and the fallout from both the virus and the response to it. The impact is being felt across the economy, and multifamily real estate is no exception. April was the first full month in which a majority of the country was locked down and provides a first full look at what that may look like for the apartment industry. Using conventional properties of at least 50 units, let’s take a look at how April 2020 stacked up against the month of April from recent years. Average Occupancy For the month of April, average occupancy has moved within a narrow range in the last five years for the San Antonio area, never dipping below 88.7% and never rising above 89.7%. Average occupancy finished this April at 89.1% but what was different about this year was the absence of an occupancy gain during the month. In the same period in 2018 and 2019 average occupancy rose by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively while this year, there was no movement. Average occupancy for each price class in San Antonio ended the month at a level comparable to recent years. Here though, the monthly movement wasn’t as uniform. Class A properties managed a 0.2% increase after suffering a retraction of around 0.5% in April of 2019. Class B properties did the inverse, losing 0.2% this year after gaining about 0.4% last April. Class C properties also gained about 0.2%, a gain one-third that of last April’s, and Class D properties held steady after a 0.5% increase in the same period last year. Net Absorption Net absorption is where multifamily performance begins to diverge from that of recent years. Monthly demand fell to 20% that of April 2019, and 17% that of April 2018. After about 1,000 previously unoccupied units were rented in April of 2019, only around 200 were rented this year. The drop-off is starker when evaluating only those properties that entered the month already stabilized. Net absorption in these properties was essentially zero after being above 500 and 700 units in April 2019 and April 2018 respectively. When broken out by price class, the market falls into two performance categories – Class A and everything else. Class A demand was slightly less this year than in the past couple of years, but the difference is less than 50 net units. For price classes B and D, positive net absorption last April turned into a net loss of rented units this year. In Class C, demand was positive, but only 25% of that in April 2019. 20 JUNE 2020 SPECIAL EDITION | www.saaaonline.org