WiFi must be backbone of operator strategy , consumers don ’ t care about CPE , claims Alex Davies , senior analyst , Rethink TV . |
“ The pay-TV industry gets quite
a few headlines that proclaim
that a really good set-top box
will save the decline of operator
video services . These are
misleading , and the facts of
the matter are that consumers
are increasingly moving to OTT
video services , operators are
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fed up supporting legacy video infrastructure , and consumers do not care about their CPE , so long as their WiFi works well .
Rethink TV , a subscription service from Rethink Technology Research , examines a lot of data , in its day-to-day business . We track the global counts of broadband and pay- TV subscribers , and looking at the figures , it is quite clear that pay-TV is in its death spiral .
Here , we see the global count for pay-TV decline from around 846 million , by our reckoning , to some 711.7 million in 2027 . Conversely , fixed-line or equivalent
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broadband households grow from 1.37 billion to 1.77 billion in the period . Worse , many of these pay-TV homes are only achieved by the aggressive bundling of video services . If push came to shove , or if it were actually possible to churn to an OTT alternative , this pay-TV customer count would plunge at a much sharper rate . However , more video is being watched than ever before , and the number of video devices installed in homes is growing consistently . Unsurprisingly , the proportion of video consumed via linear distribution channels is falling , and conversely , the amount
Rethink Research
consumed via OTT distribution is rising .
We can split this view out further , and here you can see the growing importance of Connected TVs ( including those connected by dongles
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and whatnot ), as well as Smartphones . In our view , Computer and Tablet viewing increases roughly in line with the growth of broadband homes , but this is not much to write home about .
As for the actual installed base of video devices in the home , our modelling suggests a total count of some 11.5 billion in 2022 , declining ever so slightly to 11.2 billion – on account of the decline of TVs without Internet capabilities , the growth of personal devices taking more of a share of viewing time , and the continued decline of the set-top box .
So , while the number of video devices falls slightly , the number of WiFi devices that operators have to concern themselves with does grow sharply . This is due largely to the expected growth of smart home devices and controller hubs . The growth of WiFi connectivity in previously ‘ dumb ’ appliances is also to be considered , particularly in white goods and HVAC systems .
To this end , our global
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16 EUROMEDIA |