HOPE AT THE BALLOT BOX
KABUL , Afghanistan – Afghan voters surprised the world last spring when millions of them turned out , including a record number of women , on a rainy Election Day to cast their votes for the man to replace President Hamid Karzai .
Afghans ’ determination to participate in this important election was particularly surprising given what had come before . The Taliban had spent months waging attacks and terrorizing the country in an effort to dissuade voters from going to the polls .
A string of events set the pre-election tone in Kabul , according to author and historian William Dalrymple . A January suicide attack on Taverna du Liban restaurant killed 21 people . A March attack on the Serena Hotel killed nine . An aid workers ’ guesthouse was attacked , as was the Independent Election Commission . And six people were killed in an April suicide bomber attack on the Afghan Interior Ministry .
“ Many expats in Kabul fled , the government closed several restaurants and guesthouses used by foreigners , and the foreign press corps seemed understandably and uncharacteristically rattled ,” Dalrymple wrote . “ Their reporting at times reflected that sense of panic .”
But Election Day was a turning point , he continued . “ In just 12 hours on 5 April , the general mood changed from anxious and frightened to jubilant and triumphant . The scale of participation in the election was unprecedented .”
Nearly twice as many people voted that day as had in the previous presidential election , 7 million out of a total electorate of 12 million , he said . “ There were the odd attacks on remote polling stations and 1,200 complaints about fraud . But this was nothing compared to the mess that had been predicted . … By the evening of 5 April , few could disagree that the political landscape had changed in a fundamental way .”
But , as so often happens in Afghanistan , that feeling didn ’ t last . No single candidate tallied enough votes for an outright win , so the two frontrunners , Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah , faced a runoff . Abdullah was determined to wage a hard fight for the job he believed he deserved to win , said CAI advisor Chris Kolenda .
“ Abdullah was the face of the Northern Alliance during the fight against the Taliban and came to prominence post-2001 ,” Kolenda said . Abdullah ran against
Karzai in 2009 and after that election , “ there were allegations of widespread fraud , 1.3 million votes were thrown out , and the U . S . put a lot of pressure on Abdullah not to engage in a runoff . He did not contest and Karzai was re-elected .
“ But the Abdullah camp said never again would they back down . When Abdullah won , but didn ’ t get 50 percent of the vote this time , he went for the runoff . When that second round of votes was counted , Ghani was ahead ,” he said .
The recount and investigation took months and the country wound up in a sort of national purgatory awaiting the outcome .
The Taliban took advantage of the delays . “[ The ] Security situation seems to be deteriorating with each passing day as the Afghan insurgents who are supported by their foreign lords are killing civilians without mercy … ministers and officials are busy to secure good positions in the next government ,” the Afghanistan Times opined on July .”
Finally , U . S . Secretary of State John Kerry intervened and Ghani and Abdullah agreed to a unity government with Ghani as president and Abdullah as the equivalent of a prime minister or CEO .
But the promise of an Abdullah-Ghani partnership is still just a promise . The “ rough road to agreement on issues like ministerial appointments and Mr . Abdullah ’ s exact role still lies ahead ,” the New York Times reported in October . And Afghans are generally cynical about how their two new elected leaders will share power .
Ghani “ is all about efficiency ,” progress , and building institutions ,” the Times reported . “ He is reaching out to officials across the country , using Skype to hold meetings with provincial leaders and instructing his ministers to outline their plans for each province . He is targeting corruption and militias and has vowed to be a tough enforcer .”
Ghani ’ s style is radically different than Abdullah ’ s , and some have speculated that Abdullah , “ a far more natural politician ,” may temper Ghani ’ s rough edges , the Times reported .
Dalrymple , who has written extensively on Afghanistan , described the two candidates in a New Statesman story last April , including the following details :
* Ghani : “ There is little doubt that he is the best qualified of the three contenders . A PhD from Columbia University , former World Bank official , former chancellor of Kabul University and minister of Finance , Ghani has a quick wit and a formidable brain .” Yet he can be “ irritable and irascible ,” with a temper . “ Ghani ’ s most controversial – and arguably cleverest – move was to form an alliance with the Uzbek warlord and alleged war criminal Gen . Abdul Rashid Dostum , who controls huge vote banks in the north .” He called him a “ known killer ” in 2009 , but this time chose him as his VP , claiming that bringing together enemies in reconciliation is the only way to move toward stability .
* Abdullah : “ is fluent , sophisticated and intelligent ; but he is a smoother , suaver , less academic figure than Ghani .” He ’ s the most engaging company of the three top candidates : “ witty , charming and irreverent .” An art collector who “ prefers bespoke Savile Row suits to traditional Afghan dress , Abdullah was an advisor to Ahmed Shah Massoud , the Tajik war hero and Lion of the Panjshir “ and his house and election posters are covered with images of his former boss and hero . He was part of the inner circle with Karzai and Massoud plotting how to act against Mullah Omar and the Taliban in 2000 .
It ’ s impossible to predict the future , but Afghanistan ’ s in a precarious situation , warned author Ahmed Rashid in a Times op-ed on Sept . 25 . The country is broke and under attack by insurgents . The country is plagued by corruption and fundamentally dysfunctional .
“ Anything less than a heavy dose of honesty and fresh thinking by Afghans and their Western supporters will almost certainly mean the relapse of Afghanistan into civil war and the emergence of groups even more extreme than the Taliban ,” Rashid warned .
— Karin Ronnow
An Afghan elder shows his inked finger as proof he voted in Afghanistan elections . Public domain photo by Staff Sgt . Christopher Allison , U . S . Department of Defense .
26 | Journey of Hope C E N T R A L A S I A I N S T I T U T E