Modeling the Kurdish Conflict with GIS
Table 2 . Computational Results : Provinces by Tiered Probability of Conflict
Probability Rank
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
First Iraq : As-Sulaymaniyah , Arbil , Dihok Syria : Hasaka and Aleppo
Second Iraq : Diyala , Salah ad-Din , and Ninawa Syria : Ar-Raqqah and Deir AZ Azwr Iran : Sanandaj
Third Iraq : Al-Qadisiyah , Wasit , Babil , and Maysan Syria : Idlib , Hamah , and Dara Iran : Kermanshah , Ilam , and Azarbayejan Gharbi
Fourth Iraq : Al-Anbar , Al-Basrah , An-Najaf , Karbala , and Al- Muthanna Syria : Rif Dimashq , Homs , Damascus , As Suwayada , and Tartus Iran : Tabriz , Ardabil , Rasht , Zanjan , Qazvin , Karaj , Tehran , Qum , Arak , Hamadan , Khoram Abad , and Ahwaz
Unlikely Iran : Gorgan , Bojnoord , Mashhad , Semnan , Birjand , Zahedan , Bandar Abbas , Kerman , Yazd , Esfahan , Shahre Kurd , Shiraz , Bushehr , Qeshm , and Kish
Iraq : As- Sulaymaniyah , Arbil , Dihok Syria : Hasaka and Aleppo
Iran : Sanandaj , Ilam , Azarbayejan Gharbi , and Kermanshah
Iraq : Diyala , Kirkuk , Salah ad- Din , and Ninawa Syria : Dayr AZ Zawr and Ar Raqqa
Iraq : Wasit , Babil , Maysan , and Al- Qadisiyah Syria : Hamah , and Dara
Syria : Center and South Iran : All other provinces
Iraq : As-Sulaymaniyah , Arbil , and Dihok Syria : Hasaka and Aleppo
Iran : Sanandaj
Iraq : Diyala , Kirkuk , Salah ad-Din , Wasit , Al- Qadisiyah , Karbala , and Ninawa Syria : Dayr AZ Zawr , Ar Raqqa , and Dara Iran : Ilam , Azarbayejan Gharbi , and Kermanshah
Iraq : Maysan Syria : Suwayada and Hamah
Iraq : The whole Center Syria : The whole Soth Iran : All other Provinces
In the second scenario , the northern part of Iraq — such as As-Sulaymaniyah , Arbil , and Dihok — and most of the north part of Syria — such as Hasaka and Aleppo — are most probable to engage in conflict . Some Iranian cities — like Sanandaj , Ilam , Azarbayejan Gharbi , and Kermanshah — also have a good chance to become engaged in the conflict ( Figure 2 ). However , putting
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