Journal on Policy and Complex Systems
Figure 2 . Scenario 2 map .
Figure 3 . Scenario 3 map .
Putting equal weight on all four factors underestimates the importance of government control and being Kurdish and overestimates the importance of distance . In the first scenario , the northern part of Iraq — such as As-Sulaymaniyah , Arbil , and Dihok — and almost all northern parts of Syria — like Hasaka and Aleppo — are most probable to become engaged in the conflict . According to Figure 1 , many parts of Iran — such as Sanandaj , Kermanshah , Ilam , and Azarbayejan Gharbi — and most parts of Iraq — like Al _ Qadisiyah , Wasit , Babil , and Maysan — and parts of Syria — such as Idlib , Hamah , and Dara — have some potential to become engaged in the conflict , although Kurds do not populate those cities . This means equal weighting is not correct and underestimates the role of government and Kurdish nationalism while overestimating the role of distance . Thus , I decided to place more emphasis on the government and Kurdish population factors .
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