Modeling the Kurdish Conflict with GIS
independent Kurdistan movement , that nationalistic factors have a higher percentage of influence . As a result , I increased it to 60 %. Also , I assumed that government power is a crucial factor for suppressing this movement . Thus , I changed it from 25 % to 30 % and decreased the percentage of distance and religion to 5 %. Therefore , I assumed that the central government , distance from Arbil , religion , and being Kurds have a similar influence .
Third scenario . In this scenario , I assumed that because this movement is an independent Kurdistan movement , the nationalistic factor is essential . I had to weight this in a way that did not cause bias and underestimate other factors like religion and distance . As a result , I weighted 50 % for being Kurd and 10 % for both religion and distance . Also , I assumed government power to be a crucial factor for suppressing this movement , so I used 30 % here .
Table 1 . Computational Scenarios
Weights Variables Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Government Control 25 % 30 % 30 % Distance from Arbil 25 % 5 % 10 % Religion Tension 25 % 5 % 10 % Being Kurdish 25 % 60 % 50 %
The computational results , based on scenarios shows the possible Kurdish conflict provinces , are provided in Figures 1-3 .
Figure 1 . Scenario 1 map . 31