Modeling the Kurdish Conflict with GIS
aid to fight against the government and to cooperate with Arbil . Also , it makes it harder for the central government to have complete control on that area . In contrast , it is much easier to suppress the Kurd conflict when it comes to the area far from their power center .
Method
This study covers Kurdish ethnic conflict in the regions that include Iran , Iraq , and Syria . Data were collected from scientific articles and GIS data sources . Through a literature review , I found that religion , being Kurdish , and the power of the central government to control Kurds are all principal factors that play roles in the process of becoming engaged in the conflict . I also add a final factor : the distance from Arbil because Arbil is the center of the movement , which might send aid ( both economic and military ) to other Kurdish areas .
Most of the study of ethnic conflict focuses on large-N size studies and country-level datasets . However , this study uses Geographic Information System ( GIS ) modeling to explain and test the roboustness of existing theories in the field . GIS computational results and analysis are visualized in maps below , which are useful tools for seeing uncovered information that is impossible to realize as tabular datasets . Using GIS enables policymakers and modelers to look at the same problem from another angle , and it is one additional test beyond those that are sociological or anthropological to demonstrate why or how a theory may hold .
A case study analysis was performed employing Weighted Overlay Scenario Base Modeling . Overlay is a technique that gives us the opportunity to reclassify all datasets to a common scale . I use this technique because my independent variables are diverse and , consequently , related datasets are dissimilar in scale . For example , for distance , I have a range of kilometers , and for religion , I have Sunni and non-Sunni . Applying the overlay technique provides me the opportunity to reclassify those datasets to a standard scale for analysis ; for this study , I use 0-5 . Moreover , the overlay method enables modelers to study and analyze different layers of input at the same time , which results in deep understanding and analysis of a phenomenon . Indeed , Weighted Overlay Scenario Base Modeling enables modelers to create different scenarios for an event . This is very beneficial in the case of conflict studies and scenario development . Different scenarios give policymakers the opportunity to realize the consequence of a phenomenon and understand what the more probable outcome is . Moreover , this method bounds outcomes to a plausible range , and it enables us to put a weight on our factors to find their influences .
Proposed model . Building the model is a two-step process . The first step is to create one shapefile that encompasses all three countries . I found data to build three separate shapefiles for Iran , Iraq , and Syria along with boundaries and states . Because the sources of data
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