Journal on Policy and Complex Systems Volume 5 , Number 2 • Fall 2019 © 2020 Policy Studies Organization
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Editor ’ s Letter .................................................................................................................. 1 Mirsad Hadžikadić
Multi-Group Conflict Paths : Anticipatory Scenarios of Attitudes and Outcomes ................................................................................................................. 5 Miron Kaufman , Sanda Kaufman , and Hung The Diep
Modeling the Kurdish Conflict with GIS ................................................................. 23 Khadijeh Salimi and Regina Karp
System Structure of Agent-Based Model Responsible for Reproducing Business Cycles and the Effect of Tax Reduction on GDP ..................................... 37 Shigeaki Ogibayashi and Kosei Takashima
The Effects of Immigration on the U . S . Economy ................................................... 61 Jovana Morales-Tilgren , Yuan-Yuan Lee , and Ryan Cummins
The Validity of “ Cheap , Fast , Good : Pick Any Two ” in Evaluating Healthcare Systems ............................................................................. 83 Lowell Wilson
Analyzing the Effectiveness of Anti-Child-Sex-Trafficking Policies Targeting Demand versus Supply Using Agent-Based Modeling ......................... 99 Khatera Alizada and Wesley J . Wildman
Planning for Social Environments : Social Capital in the Context of Critical Realism and the Dynamics of Complex Systems .................................... 115 Milton J . Friesen
When Well-Intentioned Legal Reform Goes Awry : A Case Study of Legal Loopholes and Challenges to Anti-Corruption Reform of Russia ’ s Complex Procurement System .................................................................. 151 Moskaleva Anastasia and Nada M . Zohdy
Error Reasoning in Complex Systems : Training and Application Error for Decision Models .................................................................................................. 165 Goode & Pires
Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems : What Policymakers Should Demand ..................................................... 181 Paul K . Davis and Steven W . Popper