Journal on Policy and Complex Systems
which any particular conflict might unfold ( e . g ., different friendly and enemy tactics , different degrees of warning ) ( Davis , 2002 ).
2 . Studies of Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency . The DoD concluded in the late 2000s that its traditional models were unsuited for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency , subjects on which great disagreements exist about cause-effect relationships and the potential effectiveness of interventions . The DoD asked for a review of the underlying base in social science that should inform modeling and simulation . The resulting work generated mostly qualitative models , with an emphasis on being able to deal with model uncertainty ( Davis & Cragin , 2009 ; Davis & O ’ Mahony , 2017 ).
3 . Industrial Transformation and Sustainability of Emission Control Policies . Although many aspects of climate change are largely settled , policy prescriptions remain controversial . Understanding the issues requires thinking about possible transformational effects on commercial , energy , and transformation systems . One study discussed adaptive co-evolutionary possibilities for technology , political coalitions , industry , and government . It highlighted the need for experiments and iterations of policy as the future unfolds ( Isley , Lempert , Popper , & Vardavas , 2013 ).
4 . International Investment in Clean- Energy Technology . The United Na- tions agreed in 2010 to the creation of the Green Climate Fund ( GCF ). A new organization was tasked with directing over $ 100 billion dollars per year toward investments in clean energy technologies . Deep model uncertainties exist in attempting to understand these issues . As shown in a recent study , however , much can be done to confront these and to find a robust set of policies ( Molina-Perez , 2016 ).
5 . Water Management Planning . Water resources managers and their partners have begun to use methods of decision-making under deep uncertainty to account for uncertain changes in hydrology and other drivers of supply and demand . Early work involved case studies in California ( Groves & Lempert , 2007 ; Tingstad , Groves , & Lempert , 2014 ). Similar methods have been used subsequently to evaluate the vulnerability of complex U . S . water systems ( Groves , Fischbach , Bloom , Knopman , & Keefe , 2013 ; Lempert & Groves , 2010 ) and international water management issues ( Kalra et al ., 2015 ; Ray et al ., 2018 ).
6 . Conclusions and Recommendations
Our basic recommendation is
that policy analysts and those who commission their work should prioritize serious uncertainty analysis , to include addressing uncertainty and disagreement about conceptual models that underlie the analysis .
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