Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 5, Number 2, Fall 2019 | Page 184

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems : What Policymakers Should Demand
Journal on Policy and Complex Systems • Volume 5 , Number 2 • Fall 2019

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems : What Policymakers Should Demand

Paul K . Davis ( corresponding author ) Principal Researcher , RAND ( retired adjunct ); Professor , Pardee RAND Graduate School pdavis @ rand . org
Steven W . Popper Senior Economist , RAND Corporation ; Professor , Pardee RAND Graduate School
Abstract
Good policy analysis needs to improve in routinely addressing not only uncertainty about model inputs to the model used , but also uncertainty about the model itself and disagreements about perspective affecting the model . This is especially true when analyzing complex systems . Progress will depend on analysts and modelers understanding how to proceed and , significantly , on policymakers demanding that they do so . Methods for doing so now exist , but culture changes will be necessary . In the future , analysis that fails to address uncertainties about both models and their inputs may come to be regarded as fatally flawed .
Keywords : uncertainty analysis ; deep uncertainty ; policy analysis ; model uncertainty ; complex adaptive systems
Confrontación a la incertidumbre del modelo en el análisis de políticas para sistemas complejos : Lo que los responsables políticos deberían exigir
Resumen
Un buen análisis de políticas debe mejorar al abordar de manera rutinaria no solo la incertidumbre sobre las entradas del modelo al modelo utilizado , sino también la incertidumbre sobre el modelo en sí y los desacuerdos de perspectiva que lo afectan . Esto es especialmente cierto cuando se analizan sistemas complejos . El
181 doi : 10.18278 / jpcs . 5.2.11