Journal on Policy and Complex Systems
between physics and social dynamics , to identify patterns and trajectories of complex social systems . Assessing the range of future possibilities is precisely the kind of input that decision-makers in a particular situation need to consider when constructing engagement strategies . According to Bernstein , Lebow , Stein , and Weber ( 2000 ), “ Knowledge of structure and process also allows conscious and far-reaching transformations of social systems ” ( p . 51 )— a statement that undermines point predictions and instead supports the attempt to understand interactive systems in order to intervene and change course when necessary .
With regard to the Korea conflict , few will hazard to predict the outcome of current negotiations surrounding North Korea ’ s nuclear arsenal , especially given the difficulties that have already occurred since 2017 . However , exploring possible trajectories of this threegroup system — North Korea , China , and the United States — may provide those who are managing this conflict with means to explore consequences of their choices .
Models drawn from statistical physics are helpful in representing social systems with some key characteristics corresponding to physics terms . Such are social groups whose members interact with each other , akin to a system of particles . This correspondence is possible because in both physical and social systems , the complex interactions among numerous components at one level evolve self-organized patterns at a higher level of observation ( Buchanan 2007 ; Castellano , Fortunato , &
Loreto , 2000 ). Social interactions have been modeled in this manner in areas ranging from culture dynamics to information dissemination , transportation flows , and social conflict . In negotiation theory , many characteristics of two-party negotiations — interactions processes , level of cognitive and interaction burdens , and outcome complexity — change meaningfully with the addition of even one more party ( Kaufman , Ozawa , & Shmueli , 2017 ). Moreover , with three or more groups , there is the possibility that ad-hoc , shifting coalitions will emerge . To explore this multi-group effect , we extend here Diep et al .’ s ( 2017 ) dynamic two-group social conflict model to multiple groups and to the study of intractable conflicts that extend over long periods . We explore the possible paths a conflict might take on the way to long-run outcomes , using a mean field approach borrowed from statistical physics . To enhance applicability to social systems , we relax some of the conservation and symmetry rules that prevail in physical systems , but not necessarily in social ones . Besides paths , we examine outcome patterns and ingroup attitudes using three groups and discuss some examples of such conflicts where the model could be used to gain insights into conflict management strategies . We conclude with some ideas for further refining the model .
2 . Modeling Three-Group Conflicts
Intractable social conflicts have different histories , characteristics , causes , and interaction patterns
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